TechFlow news, November 17: CICC released its 2026 outlook stating that Chinese equities will continue to benefit from the AI technology wave and ample liquidity, with reasonable valuations. Although volatility may increase toward year-end, there is no sign of a bull market peak yet; an overweight recommendation is advised, with a more balanced internal style.
The same bullish logic applies to U.S. stocks, but U.S. equity elasticity is relatively low during the dollar depreciation cycle, coupled with concerns over high valuations, making chasing highs risky; a neutral (benchmark) weighting is recommended.
Although China's interest rate center may still have room to decline further, CGB valuations are relatively expensive with limited upside potential, suggesting an underweight position. U.S. Treasuries benefit from the Fed's easing cycle but face medium-term inflation and debt risks, warranting a neutral (benchmark) stance. Commodities offer both hedging against shifts in gold and stock trends and catch-up growth potential following liquidity easing, so positioning should be raised from underweight to neutral. Gold benefits from the Fed's easing cycle and monetary system restructuring, though valuations are relatively high; maintaining an overweight position is recommended, with reduced speculative trading and逢low增持 (adding on dips). (Jinshi)
