TechFlow, November 16 — According to Jinshi Data citing Financial Times analysis, the minutes from the Federal Reserve's October policy meeting will be released next Thursday morning Beijing time, amid growing investor uncertainty over the future path of U.S. interest rates. The Fed cut its benchmark rate last month to a range of 3.75%-4%, but investors hoping for Chair Powell to signal another rate cut in December were disappointed. Ahead of the October meeting, markets had fully priced in a 25-basis-point rate cut in December. However, Powell’s statement that “further easing by year-end is not a given” swiftly reshaped market expectations.
Boston Fed President Collins this week further questioned the case for a rate cut next month, stressing that “the bar for additional easing in the near term is relatively high.” Data scarcity will be a major obstacle for the Fed's decision-making. The 43-day U.S. government shutdown ended this week, during which critical labor market and inflation data were not released, making it difficult for investors to assess the true health of the world’s largest economy. Morgan Stanley analysts noted in a client report that the data gaps and delayed employment indicators mean “the Fed will face a significant information shortfall when making decisions at its December meeting.”
