TechFlow, on November 14, multiple Federal Reserve officials this week suggested cautiously that they remain wary of a rate cut in December. While still concerned about inflation, they believe labor market conditions have shown relatively stable signs after two rate cuts this year. These comments led markets to revise down the probability of a December rate cut to below 50%. Bob Savage, head of macro strategy at NYCB, said, "There's clearly a divergence within the Fed, and several officials openly admitted there isn't much data to rely on right now. Focusing on inflation is clearly correct because inflation has remained at around 3%." George Cipolloni, portfolio manager at Mutual Asset Management, pointed out, "Inflation has been quite stubborn. We heard some interesting remarks from U.S. Treasury Secretary Beasant, who dropped certain food tariffs—frankly, I think this is an acknowledgment they made a mistake on tariffs. We are indeed seeing weakness in the labor market, which is evident, but progress on cooling inflation remains far from sufficient. Therefore, the Fed is currently in somewhat of a dilemma." (Jinshi)
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