TechFlow news, November 10: HTX DeepThink column author and HTX Research researcher Chloe (@ChloeTalk1) analyzed that the U.S. government shutdown has lasted over a month. Although Senate leaders from both parties recently stated they are seeking a "derailment solution," lawmakers remain deadlocked on issues such as Medicaid, with only "initial progress" reported and no real agreement reached. Due to the shutdown halting official statistics, markets can only rely on private data to assess economic conditions: the ADP report showed only 42,000 jobs added in the private sector in October, wage growth remained at 4.5%, indicating a clear cooling in the labor market. Meanwhile, the AI sector led tech stocks lower, with profit-taking by investors and high valuations seen as the main reasons for the correction. A stronger dollar caused gold prices to fall about 1.5% within a week, and market expectations for a December rate cut dropped from over 90% to around 71%.
On-chain data shows large holders reduced positions at price peaks and are now accumulating again at lower levels: FinEstel reported that the median number of active addresses increased by 7% in October, whales distributed Bitcoin significantly around $126,000, but institutional buying via OTC channels continued to rise. Additionally, stablecoin inflows reached $2.8 billion, with flow velocity down 20%, suggesting substantial funds remain on the sidelines awaiting opportunities.
On the Federal Reserve front, besides another rate cut in October, the Fed announced it will stop reducing its balance sheet starting December 1—ending quantitative tightening (QT)—and reinvest maturing mortgage-backed securities into short-term Treasuries. This means that once the government reopens and the Treasury resumes bond issuance, the central bank will no longer actively reduce its holdings. Some analysts believe this paves the way for restarting quantitative easing (QE) early next year, as weak demand for U.S. debt and high yields may force the Fed to repurchase Treasuries to maintain market liquidity. However, this view remains controversial. Currently, the Fed has only confirmed the end of QT; whether full QE正式启动 depends on resolution of the government shutdown, restoration of economic data, and financial market conditions. Therefore, markets expect a budget deal may be reached in late November or early December, after which policy direction will be shaped by fiscal stimulus and potential QE. The crypto market must closely monitor macro-level negotiation progress and the mid-December FOMC meeting.
