TechFlow, on October 29, according to Jinshi Data, the Federal Reserve will announce its interest rate decision at 02:00 Beijing time on Thursday. Most institutions predict a 25 basis point rate cut, with forecasts as follows:
Bank of America: Expects the Fed to cut rates by 25 basis points in October. (The only major brokerage predicting the Fed will cut rates only once for the remainder of this year)
Citigroup: Expects the Fed to cut rates by 25 basis points in October and another 25 basis points in December.
Wells Fargo: Expects the Fed to cut rates by 25 basis points in October and another 25 basis points in December.
JPMorgan Chase: Expects the Fed to cut rates by 25 basis points in October and another 25 basis points in December.
Nomura Securities: Expects the Fed to cut rates by 25 basis points in October and another 25 basis points in December.
BNP Paribas: Expects the Fed to cut rates by 25 basis points in October and another 25 basis points in December.
Standard Chartered Bank: Expects the Fed to cut rates by 25 basis points in October and another 25 basis points in December.
Deutsche Bank: Expects the Fed to cut rates by 25 basis points in October and another 25 basis points in December.
Morgan Stanley: Expects the Fed to cut rates by 25 basis points in October and another 25 basis points in December.
UBS Group: Expects the Fed to cut rates by 25 basis points in October, another 25 basis points in December, and a further 25 basis points in the first quarter of 2026.
ANZ Bank: Expects the Fed to cut rates by 25 basis points in October, possibly another 25 basis points in December, and an additional 50 basis points early next year.
Goldman Sachs: Expects the Fed to cut rates by 25 basis points in October, with a high likelihood of another cut in December, and initially forecasts two additional 25 basis point cuts in March and June 2026.
Barclays: Expects the Fed to cut rates by 25 basis points in October, with Governor Miller possibly advocating for a larger cut. Another 25 basis point cut is expected in December.
Danske Bank: Expects the Fed to cut rates by 25 basis points in October, and after October, we expect the Fed to cut an additional 25 basis points each quarter until late summer 2026.
ING: The market has largely priced in a 25 basis point cut for this meeting. We still believe two more cuts in 2025 are needed to effectively improve economic momentum. Two additional cuts are expected in 2026.
