TechFlow, October 28 — This week's convergence of multiple macro events could become the most impactful market cycle of the year, according to Chloe (@ChloeTalk1), author of the HTX DeepThink column and researcher at HTX Research. First, during the ASEAN summit in Malaysia, China and the U.S. reached a trade "framework," postponing restrictions on Chinese rare earth exports and halting the imposition of 100% tariffs on Chinese goods. U.S. Treasury Secretary Bessent stated that Beijing committed to large-scale purchases of American agricultural products, while Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng noted both sides achieved a "basic consensus," paving the way for talks between Trump and Xi Jinping at the APEC summit. Easing trade tensions boosted Asia-Pacific equities and strengthened risk appetite.
Second, due to the U.S. government shutdown creating a data vacuum, the Federal Reserve is expected to cut rates by another 25 basis points at its October 28–29 meeting. The European Central Bank and Bank of Japan will also hold policy meetings this week, with markets anticipating the ECB will hold steady while the BoJ assesses its yield curve control strategy. The Bank of Canada may cut rates to counter domestic economic slowdown. Global monetary policy could see further easing.
Meanwhile, the so-called "Big Five" tech firms—Microsoft, Alphabet, Meta, Apple, and Amazon—will release their earnings reports in the latter half of the week. Investopedia notes that market attention is focused on these companies' AI investments and profit outlooks.
On the technology front, NVIDIA CEO Jensen Huang emphasized at this year's GTC conference that agent-based AI will increase demand for inference computing by 100-fold, unveiling new chips including the Blackwell Ultra GPU, Vera Rubin and Feynman series, as well as DGX workstations. He asserted that only NVIDIA meets both rapid training and inference demands, reinforcing its leadership in AI hardware.
In crypto options, data from CoinGlass and Deribit show Bitcoin options open interest has reached $63 billion, with Deribit accounting for 80%. Positions are concentrated in high strike price ranges between $120,000 and $140,000; approximately $510 million in options expire this Friday, with maximum pain at $114,000. The put/call ratio stands at around 1.03, indicating balanced long and hedging positions. Overall sentiment remains bullish, though short-term volatility may intensify due to the large volume of expiring options.
In summary, easing trade tensions and dovish monetary expectations have improved risk sentiment, NVIDIA's new chips reinforce the AI theme, and crypto options markets show bullish positioning at elevated levels—but caution is warranted as large volumes of options approach expiry.
