TechFlow, October 14 — The International Monetary Fund (IMF) raised its global growth forecast for 2025 on Tuesday, citing milder-than-expected impacts from trade tariffs and financial conditions, but warned that Trump's trade war could significantly weigh on global output. In its World Economic Outlook, the IMF said recent trade agreements between the U.S. and several major economies have avoided the harshest tariff measures threatened by Trump, prompting the fund to revise up growth forecasts for the second time since April. It now expects global real GDP growth of 3.2% in 2025, up from the July forecast of 3.0%, and maintains its 2026 growth projection at 3.1%, unchanged from July.
The IMF projects U.S. GDP growth of 2.0% in 2025, slightly above the July forecast of 1.9%, and 2.1% in 2026, also modestly revised upward but clearly below 2024's 2.8%. The IMF attributed stronger U.S. growth to lower-than-expected tariff levels, fiscal stimulus from Republican tax reforms, accommodative financial conditions, and a surge in artificial intelligence investment. (Jinshi)
