TechFlow news, October 14 — HTX DeepThink column author and HTX Research researcher Chloe (@ChloeTalk1) analyzed that macroeconomic developments this week are highly concentrated — multiple Federal Reserve officials will speak from Tuesday to Wednesday, the Beige Book will be released Wednesday evening, and Thursday will bring key readings on September’s PPI and retail sales (both during U.S. morning trading hours). These events will directly anchor market expectations regarding whether further easing will continue this year and at what pace, thereby influencing risk premiums and volatility levels in crypto assets.
On the other hand, although the government shutdown has delayed some official data releases, alternative market signals remain available: institutional estimates show initial jobless claims rose again in early October, indicating a marginal softening in employment. Meanwhile, the BLS has confirmed that the September CPI will be released as scheduled on October 24. The data lull is therefore not a "vacuum," as market expectations continue to be calibrated.
From a pricing perspective, FedWatch indicates futures markets continue to price in at least one additional rate cut this year, with growing preference for "1–2" cuts. The Fed's rhetoric and meeting minutes balancing "slowing growth" against "falling inflation" have strengthened consensus around a "small step first, then wait for data" approach. This exerts temporary pressure on the dollar and allows valuation flexibility for risk assets. In terms of sentiment and inflation expectations, the New York Fed’s SCE shows a rise in household inflation expectations for September, but this does not break the broader "trend of decline." Markets are now more focused on whether Thursday’s PPI can maintain the recent moderation in producer-level prices.
In terms of crypto market microstructure, extreme sentiment from earlier periods has clearly cooled. Estimated Bitcoin leverage has significantly declined from monthly highs, though it has not yet reached yearly lows. This suggests that after "passive deleveraging," on-chain risk exposure is now more manageable. Capital is increasingly favoring beta exposure and hedging strategies using top-tier assets to navigate uncertainty around data releases and official comments. On the options front, the previous strong skew toward bullish positions has rapidly converged and has temporarily shifted toward dominant bearish protection, increasing implied volatility elasticity. Combined with the dense schedule of macro events, this setup favors a pattern of "amplified volatility around data releases, followed by mean reversion."
From a market structure standpoint, the decline in Bitcoin leverage signals that the unwinding of excessive speculation is entering its later stages. Although leverage has not yet reached its annual low, the overall deleveraging process has brought about a healthy adjustment, building momentum for future price movements. A moderate reduction in market leverage also implies limited downside pressure ahead. Once new leveraged capital returns to the market, it could become a key driver of a rebound. Over the next one to two weeks, Bitcoin is expected to consolidate within a range of $108,000–$118,000, forming a new base to set the stage for year-end market performance.
