Bitget UEX Daily | US New Tariffs Take Effect, Middle East Risks Rise; Intel Earnings Beat Expectations, AI Competition Shifts; Magnificent Seven All Fall, Tesla Plunges

I. Hot News

Federal Reserve Updates

Oil Price Surge Pushes Up Rate Hike Expectations, Market Prices in Approx. 36% Probability of Rate Hike Next Week

• Middle East conflict escalation drives Brent Crude above $100, 2-year US Treasury yield rises to 4.365%, 10-year and 30-year yields simultaneously hit year-to-date highs.
• CME "FedWatch" shows probability of 25 basis point rate hike next week接近 36%. Market Impact: Inflation concerns heat up, short-end rate sensitive assets under pressure, USD and US Treasury yields rise in tandem, risk asset risk preference significantly declines.

International Commodities

New US Tariffs Effective Today, Middle East Risks Lift Oil Prices

• New import tariffs implemented from 00:01 ET Friday, tax rate 10%-12.5%, covering about 60 economies; Mexico, UK, Canada, India etc. apply 10%, EU at least 10%, Japan Korea Switzerland at least 12.5%.
• Saudi oil tanker attacked and US-Iran conflict escalates, Brent once broke through $100. Market Impact: Trade costs rise 叠加 geopolitical risk premium, short-term pushes up energy prices and reinforces inflation expectations, beneficial for some safe-haven assets but suppresses risk preference.

US-Iran Dynamics

Middle East Conflict Escalates, US Threatens Large-Scale Action

• Trump stated he is seriously considering restarting large-scale operations against Iran, and warned Houthi attacks will hold Iran responsible; Iran and Houthi armed forces both claim ready to respond.
• Israeli Defense Minister simultaneously stated ready. Market Impact: Geopolitical risk premium directly pushes up oil prices and safe-haven demand, simultaneously raises rate hike expectations through inflation channel, overall market volatility intensifies.

II. Market Review

Commodities & Forex Performance

• Spot Gold: Approx. $4,050/oz, +0.02%
• Spot Silver: Approx. $57.75/oz, +0.17%
• WTI Crude Oil: Approx. $92.14/barrel, -0.05%
• Brent Crude: Approx. $87/barrel, +0.1%
• US Dollar Index (DXY): 101.426, -0.02

Driver Analysis: Middle East conflict escalation and Saudi oil tanker attack directly push up oil prices, 叠加 new US tariffs landing reinforces trade cost concerns, inflation expectations obviously heat up. Gold and Silver as safe-haven assets gain support, but strong USD and US Treasury yield rise form suppression. Institutional views believe short-term commodities still driven by geopolitics and policy dual wheels, energy prices high operation may extend Fed tightening expectations, asset linkage performance shows oil price rise → inflation concerns → interest rate rise → risk assets under pressure chain.

Cryptocurrency Performance

• BTC: Approx. 65,000, -1.82%
• ETH: Approx. $1,870, -3.35%
• Crypto Total Market Cap: $2.31 trillion, -1.1%
• Market Liquidation Status: 24h total liquidations $252 million, long liquidations $189 million
• Bitget BTC/USDT Liquidation Map: Current price approx. $64,829, above $65,500–$66,500 gathers large amount of short liquidation orders, if price continues to attack up, easy to trigger short concentrated liquidation, pushing market accelerate rise. Below long liquidations mainly concentrate in $64,000–$63,500 range, but overall liquidation scale smaller than above, short-term liquidation structure still leans towards sweeping short liquidity up first.

• Spot ETF Net Inflow/Outflow: Yesterday net inflow $69 million, current 24h dynamic net outflow $23 million.

Driver Analysis: US stock risk preference decline and oil price surge push up rate hike expectations, forming macro suppression on crypto market. ETF fund flow shows institutional attitude cautious, leverage liquidation reflects emotion sensitivity. BTC relatively holds key range, ETH elasticity weaker. Institutional consensus points to short-term oscillation weak, need to watch Fed policy signals and geopolitical progress transmission to risk assets.

US Stock Index Performance

• Dow Jones: Close 51,711.65 points, down 0.97%
• S&P 500: Close 7,408.30 points, down 1.21%
• Nasdaq: Close 25,137.69 points, down 2.15%, tech and growth under pressure obviously

Tech Giants Dynamics

• NVDA: 208.76 (-1.56%)
• AAPL: 321.66 (-1.30%)
• MSFT: 381.58 (-2.24%)
• GOOGL: 317.69 (-7.13%)
• AMZN: 233.66 (-4.57%)
• META: 606.10 (-3.36%)
• TSLA: 319.69 (-14.52%)

Performance Summary and Driver Analysis: Magnificent Seven collectively down, Tesla single day plummet approx. 14%-15% due to Q2 profit far below expectations, Google due to raising full year capex to max $205 billion triggers AI spending concerns. Middle East conflict pushes up oil prices and rate hike expectations jointly suppress risk preference. Individual stock differentiation significant: Storage sector rises against market, while high valuation growth stocks under pressure heavier, showing market shifts from "AI narrative" to "return verification" and macro risk pricing.

Sector Movement Observation

Memory Concepts Rise Against Market

• Representative Stocks: Micron Technology up 3.2%, SK Hynix up 2.56%.
• Drivers: Google increases AI spending beneficial for high bandwidth memory demand, funds flow back to supply-demand tight links in overall pullback.

Defense & Aerospace Strengthen

• Representative Stocks: Lockheed Martin up 10.54%, Raytheon Technologies up 7.33%.
• Drivers: Middle East conflict escalation pushes up restock and defense demand expectations.

Semiconductors Under Pressure Overall

• Representative Stocks: Texas Instruments down 3.13%, AMD down 2.29%, Intel down 2.33%.
• Drivers: Macro risk preference decline 叠加 partial individual stock expectation management challenges.

III. US Stock Individual Deep Dive

1. Intel (INTC) - Q2 Earnings Greatly Beat Expectations

Event Overview: Intel Q2 revenue $16.13 billion, YoY +25% (estimate $14.43 billion); Data Center & AI revenue $6.26 billion (estimate $5.54 billion); Adjusted EPS $0.42 (estimate $0.21). Q3 guidance revenue $15.8-16.8 billion, Adjusted EPS $0.38, both higher than market expectations. Executives stated server CPU appears strong double-digit growth, 2027 capex will be significantly higher than 2026. Market Interpretation: Institutions believe this is one of strongest growth in fifteen years, AI demand verification clear, reshapes Intel's position in data center & AI chip competition. Analysts focus on competition landscape changes with AMD, Nvidia and long-term capex rhythm. Investment Implication: Earnings and guidance beat expectations provide mid-line support, watch subsequent execution and market share changes.

2. Tesla (TSLA) - Earnings Miss Expectations Plunge

Event Overview: Tesla Q2 profit far below expectations, stock price single day plummet approx. 14%-15%, shorts single day book profit approx. $4.12 billion. Company short ratio highest among Magnificent Seven (approx. 3% float). BNP Paribas analyst maintains Sell rating and $280 target price, points out valuation already implies extremely high AI expectations. Market Interpretation: Institutions hold cautious attitude on aggressive capex and AI progress speed, delivery strong but profit quality and Robotaxi commercialization progress still key variables. Retail investors add positions against trend, but institutions more focus on return verification. Investment Implication: Short-term volatility amplifies, need to track AI & energy business actual contribution and full year guidance adjustment.

3. Google (GOOGL) - Cloud Business Strong but Capex Raise Triggers Concerns

Event Overview: Google Cloud CEO stated existing customers actual spending approx. 50% higher than commitments, driving cloud business high speed growth. But company raises full year capex to max $205 billion, stock price intraday once fell over 7%. Market Interpretation: Institutions recognize cloud business differentiation advantage and execution, but concerns on AI investment continuous expansion return cycle heat up. Analysts重点 observe search ad resilience and capex efficiency. Investment Implication: Long-term beneficial for cloud & AI ecosystem, but short-term need to verify high investment revenue conversion speed.

4. AMD - AI Inference Cooperation Advances

Event Overview: AMD CEO announced cooperation with Cerebras to launch AI inference solution combining Helios GPU rack and Cerebras wafer-scale chip, product will launch to market later this year. Anthropic used Claude to complete AMD chip full adaptation over weekend, seen by market as signal CUDA moat eroded by AI own capabilities. Market Interpretation: Institutions believe this strengthens AMD competitiveness in AI inference field, hardware lock logic encountering challenges, beneficial for multi-supplier landscape. Investment Implication: Watch cooperation landing and market share changes, as AI compute diversification configuration.

5. Nvidia (NVDA) - Packaging Cooperation with Amkor

Event Overview: Nvidia and Amkor reach $1.5 billion multi-year cooperation, jointly develop next-gen AI & accelerated computing platform advanced packaging & testing technology, Nvidia provides prepayment support US capacity expansion. Market Interpretation: Institutions believe this strengthens supply chain resilience and advanced packaging capabilities, aligns with AI infrastructure continuous expansion trend. Investment Implication: Long-term beneficial for AI compute ecosystem, watch capacity landing progress.

IV. Market & Project Dynamics

1. Argentina government is advancing relaxing capital market controls, plans to allow Common Investment Funds (FCI) to invest in Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies, and allow virtual assets as pledge collateral. This measure originates from Economic Minister Federico Sturzenegger drafted "Deregulation Bill" draft, currently waiting for President Javier Milei signature before submitting to Congress.

2. Blockworks researcher Luke Leasure released report pointing out, Bitcoin may be at or near cycle low. BTC down 50% from historical high, bear market lasted over 40 weeks, multiple high time frame indicators simultaneously touch historical rare levels. Bitcoin this month records historically most severe Nasdaq relative oversold reading, February also created relative oversold record against Gold. Realized Price (on-chain average cost basis) approx. $53,000, only 18% lower than spot, historically every bear market low traded at discount below this level.

3. Intel gives unexpectedly strong revenue forecast for current quarter, indicating data center spending surge is helping drive this chip manufacturer long-awaited recovery. Company stated in statement Thursday, Q3 revenue expected $15.8 to $16.8 billion. Even forecast range lower limit, also obviously higher than analyst average estimate $15.1 billion. This performance outlook highlights Intel progress made in data center customer base, these customers urgently seeking chips to meet AI compute demand.

4. Local time 23rd, US Senate with 49 votes to 47 votes result, vetoed resolution aimed at limiting Trump war powers against Iran. This resolution was Democrat led, aimed at stopping Trump government military action against Iran, unless obtaining Congress authorization. Earlier same day, US Congress House of Representatives voted pass a resolution, again requesting Trump government stop war against Iran.

5. Just as 150-day global temporary tariffs expire this Friday, Trump government launched new tariff measures. Media reports state, US Trade Representative Office July 23 released announcement, declaring pursuant to "Trade Act of 1974" Section 301, citing failure to stop "forced labor" as reason, impose 10% to 12.5% tariffs on dozens of countries and regions, effective US Eastern Time 24th.

6. AMD Advancing AI Conference held July 22-23 in San Francisco. At conference, AMD CEO Lisa Su stated, expects by 2030, AI accelerator market will reach $1.4 trillion, global data center CPU market size will reach $220 billion, global compute market size will reach $2 trillion. Additionally, AMD officially launched first rack-level AI system Helios, Lisa Su stated, Helios has fully started production, soon will start shipping.

7. OpenAI expects large-scale deployment of AMD Helios. OpenAI infrastructure head stated, company three months ago started using AMD Helios GPU racks, OpenAI plans to cooperate with AMD to develop MI500 series AI chips and subsequent products.

V. Today's Market Calendar

Data Release Schedule

July 24 (Friday)

★★★★ Trump attends White House Correspondents' Association Dinner, speech content may affect market; ★★★★ AMD holds Advancing AI Conference, CEO Lisa Su delivers speech, discussing AI Agents, model optimization etc.

Important Event Preview

• New US Tariffs Effective: Implemented from today, watch trade partner reactions and supply chain impact.
• Middle East Geopolitical Progress: Continuously track US-Iran and Houthi armed forces dynamics impact on oil prices.

Institutional Views:

Investment bank analysts believe, US new tariffs landing and Middle East conflict escalation jointly push up oil prices and inflation expectations, market has priced in Fed next week approx. 36% rate hike probability, short-end interest rate rise suppresses risk assets. Intel earnings beat expectations verifies AI demand, but Tesla and Google earnings highlight high valuation growth stocks return verification pressure. Overall strategy suggests watching energy and defense etc. beneficial sectors, simultaneously maintain caution on high capex tech stocks, wait for macro and earnings dual signals clear.

Disclaimer: The above content is organized by AI search, manually verified for publication, and does not constitute any investment advice. Data in the text inevitably contains deviations; please refer to real-time market data.