Bitget UEX Daily Report | US-Iran Negotiations Deepen Divide; Trump Threatens to Block Strait; Oil Prices Surge, Gold and Bitcoin Retreat
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Bitget UEX Daily Report | US-Iran Negotiations Deepen Divide; Trump Threatens to Block Strait; Oil Prices Surge, Gold and Bitcoin Retreat
Overall, the market is shifting from “expectation-based pricing” to “reality-based pricing.” Capital will concentrate in AI hardware, resources, cyclical sectors experiencing price increases, and high-dividend yield sectors. Short-term volatility will intensify, but the medium- to long-term trend remains unchanged.
Navigating Web3 tides with focused insightsI. Top News
Federal Reserve Updates
“New Fed Watch” Commentary on March Core CPI Data
- March core CPI rose 0.196% month-on-month—slightly below market expectations—but energy price shocks may still manifest in subsequent months; the Fed hopes to see energy prices decline and gain greater confidence in how tariff effects transmit through the economy.
- A single month’s data is insufficient to alter the policy path; institutions broadly view December rate cuts as still uncertain. Market impact: Short-term relief for inflation concerns, yet geopolitical risks pushing up energy prices could extend the Fed’s wait-and-see period, negatively impacting high-valuation growth stocks.
Global Commodities
U.S.-Iran First-Round Talks Collapse; Spot Crude Oil Market Goes Unruly
- Trump threatened that if Iran refuses to compromise, U.S. forces would seize control of the Strait of Hormuz to cut off Iranian oil exports; sharp disagreements persist over control of the strait, Iran’s 900-pound stockpile of highly enriched uranium, and $27 billion in frozen assets—the talks lasted 21 hours before ending fruitlessly.
- Spot Brent crude briefly spiked to a record high of $144 per barrel, trading at a premium of over $30 above futures; Asian refiners are “buying oil at any price,” while Macquarie warns that if conflict persists into June, oil prices could breach $200 per barrel. Market impact: Supply concerns dominate; soaring oil prices directly elevate global inflation expectations—energy stocks benefit short-term, but risk assets suffer; gold, silver, and cryptocurrencies all corrected concurrently.
Macroeconomic Policy
Hong Kong Issues First Stablecoin Licenses; China Unveils Ten New Cross-Strait Exchange Policies
- HSBC and Standard Chartered secured stablecoin licenses in Hong Kong, opening new pathways for global financial institutions to enter Asia’s stablecoin market; the Taiwan Affairs Office of the State Council announced ten measures—including resuming individual travel to Taiwan for residents of Shanghai and Fujian Province, establishing water, electricity, gas, and bridge links between Fujian and Kinmen/Matsu, and restoring normal cross-strait passenger air services.
- Foreign capital outflows from Indian equities hit a record high—$18.84 billion withdrawn in Q1 alone, surpassing the full-year 2025 total. Market impact: Regulatory breakthroughs for stablecoins benefit traditional banks’ crypto strategies; cross-strait policies boost related cross-border investment themes; India’s accelerating capital flight accelerates global capital rotation toward AI-driven economies.
II. Market Recap
Commodities & FX Performance
- Spot Gold: Fell nearly 1.5% during Asian trading hours, breaking below $4,700/oz, weighed down by easing geopolitical tensions and modest USD strength dampening safe-haven demand.
- Spot Silver: Dropped nearly 2.5% to $74/oz during Asian trading hours—industrial demand provides some support, yet overall movement follows broader corrections.
- WTI Crude: Gained ~8% to $104.60/bbl, driven by collapsed negotiations and constrained Strait of Hormuz access, widening spot premiums.
- Brent Crude: Futures strengthened to $103/bbl, with supply disruption risks dominating sentiment.
- USD Index: Slightly declined to 99.046, adjusting amid improved risk appetite.
Cryptocurrency Performance
- BTC: Down ~2.55% over 24H to ~$71,185; short-term pressure persists amid easing geopolitical tensions and oil-price shocks, maintaining its sideways consolidation pattern.
- ETH: Down ~2.57% over 24H to ~$2,202; tracking broader market correction, yet sustained ETF inflows provide underlying support.
- Total Crypto Market Cap: Down 2.7% over 24H to ~$2.49 trillion.
- Liquidations: ~$282 million liquidated over 24H, including $202 million in long positions.
- Bitget BTC/USDT Liquidation Map: Current price (~$71,133) sits near the edge of a dense liquidation zone; long liquidations continue accumulating near $70,000; a break below $70,300–$70,500 could trigger accelerated downside. Conversely, significant short liquidations cluster between $72,000–$73,000; a rebound above $71,500 could easily spark short squeezes and upward momentum.
U.S. Equity Index Performance
- Dow Jones Industrial Average: Down 0.56% to 47,916.57—dragged lower by energy and banking sectors—modest pullback after two weeks of gains.
- S&P 500: Down 0.11% to 6,816.89—narrow-range consolidation amid persistent geopolitical uncertainty.
- Nasdaq Composite: Up 0.35% to 22,902.89—tech-led rebound, with AI-related stocks remaining strong.
Tech Giants’ Performance
As of last Friday’s close:
- Apple (AAPL): $260.48—minor fluctuations supported by recovering smartphone market share.
- Microsoft (MSFT): $370.87—down 0.59%; robust demand for AI cloud services.
- Google (GOOGL): ~$317—modestly higher; solid search and cloud business performance.
- Amazon (AMZN): $238.38—up 2.02%; dual engine of e-commerce and AWS.
- Meta (META): $629.86—slight pullback; advertising revenue outlook remains steady.
- Tesla (TSLA): Down modestly to $348.95—energy transition narrative temporarily paused.
- NVIDIA (NVDA): $188.63—up 2.57%.
Sector Rotation Observations
Energy Sector: Up >2%
- Key names: Major energy companies broadly rallied. Catalyst: U.S.-Iran talks collapse sparked supply disruption fears, widening spot crude premiums.
Tech Hardware Sector: Up >1.5%
- Key names: Broadcom (+4.69%), AMD (+3.55%), NVIDIA (+2.57%). Catalyst: Breakthroughs in top-tier large model capabilities—computing demand growth now running three times faster than supply; Morgan Stanley notes current market optimism still underestimates this trend.
III. In-Depth Stock Analysis
1. Anthropic — Comprehensive AI Leadership Over OpenAI
Event Summary: Anthropic’s annualized revenue has surpassed $30 billion, exceeding OpenAI’s; its private-market valuation and secondary-market热度 both lead OpenAI’s—whose legacy shares remain illiquid; its enterprise code-generation and other B2B market share far exceeds competitors’, making it Silicon Valley’s newest focal point. Market Interpretation: Institutions believe Anthropic holds stronger competitiveness in enterprise-grade AI applications, with growing capital favor. Investment Insight: The AI race has entered a new phase—companies focused on B2B applications and safety/compliance may enjoy long-term advantages; consider exposure to related supply-chain names.
2. HSBC & Standard Chartered — Stablecoin Licenses Issued in Hong Kong
Event Summary: The Hong Kong Monetary Authority granted the first stablecoin issuance licenses to Anchorpoint—a joint venture between HSBC and Standard Chartered—opening a channel for traditional banks to enter crypto-based payments and settlements. Market Interpretation: Analysts view this as signaling Hong Kong’s global leadership in crypto regulation, likely attracting more institutional capital. Investment Insight: Convergence of traditional finance and crypto is accelerating; banks holding stablecoin licenses may secure first-mover advantage in Asia’s digital asset markets.
3. JPMorgan Chase, Wells Fargo & Others — Bank Earnings Season Kicks Off This Week
Event Summary: JPM, WFC, BAC, C, MS, GS, and Netflix will all release Q1 earnings this week—market focus centers on oil price impacts on bank asset quality. Market Interpretation: Institutions expect net interest margins to remain pressured but trading revenues strong—earnings reports will serve as critical stress tests for market resilience. Investment Insight: Prioritize stocks beating earnings expectations; elevated oil prices may benefit banks with larger energy credit exposures.
4. CoreWeave — AI Compute Demand Systematically Outstrips Supply
Event Summary: Morgan Stanley notes global token usage surged 250% in three months—compute demand growth vastly outpaces NVIDIA’s supply capacity; U.S. data center electricity shortages are projected to reach 55 gigawatts between 2025–2028. Market Interpretation: Institutions are upgrading AI infrastructure investment forecasts—valuations of related firms may be revised upward. Investment Insight: AI hardware bottlenecks and energy constraints coexist—high-quality compute suppliers retain long-term allocation value.
IV. Cryptocurrency Project Updates
1. Mike Selig, Chair of the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), stated in an interview that the agency will continue defending its “exclusive regulatory authority” over prediction markets in court.
2. JPMorgan Chase plans to expand JPM Coin to the Canton Network via Kinexys in 2026—the network currently settles over $350 billion daily in U.S. Treasury repo transactions.
3. Delphi Digital analysis suggests liquidity may become a headwind for Bitcoin. February’s PCE data—released before Iran-war impacts surfaced—already showed U.S. consumer weakness: income contraction and near-zero real spending growth. March CPI came in at 3.3%, with energy contributing three-quarters of the increase. The U.S. Leading Economic Index (LEI)—which leads real yields by ~6 months—is declining. The last time this occurred was in 2022: tight monetary policy colliding with an energy shock. That year, Bitcoin’s correlation with real yields turned deeply negative.
4. Michael Saylor, Co-Founder of Strategy, posted on X that the company’s Bitcoin holdings have an annualized breakeven yield of ~2.05%. If Bitcoin’s long-term growth rate exceeds this threshold, Strategy can pay dividends indefinitely without issuing additional MSTR shares—real-time tracking available on its official website.
5. Data: CONX, ARB, DBR, and others face major token unlocks this week—CONX’s unlock totals ~$16.2 million in value.
V. Today’s Market Calendar
Data Release Schedule
Key Event Preview
- Bank Earnings Season: JPM, WFC, BAC, C, MS, GS, and NFLX roll out Q1 results this week—watch for oil price impacts on profitability and AI capex guidance.
- Geopolitical Developments: Follow-up U.S.-Iran negotiation dynamics and Strait of Hormuz navigation status—key barometers for oil prices and risk assets.
Institutional Views:
Top-tier investment banks broadly agree: While the U.S.-Iran talks’ collapse hasn’t triggered full-scale conflict, the Strait of Hormuz supply risk has shifted crude oil markets into “real-world pricing”—spot premiums reflect genuine scarcity, making short-term oil prices prone to rise into the $100–$110/bbl range and potentially delaying the Fed’s rate-cut timeline. Morgan Stanley stresses that AI compute supply-demand gaps are systematically widening—projected U.S. data center power shortages of 55 GW between 2025–2028—and non-linear leaps in top-tier model capabilities will sustain tech stock valuation expansion. On crypto markets, institutional inflows and stablecoin regulatory progress offer support; continuous positive BTC/ETH ETF flows demonstrate resilient institutional demand; easing geopolitics combined with AI narratives could drive total market cap back to highs. Overall, markets are transitioning from “expectation-based pricing” to “reality-based pricing,” with capital rotating toward AI hardware, resource plays, cyclical commodity beneficiaries, and high-dividend sectors—short-term volatility intensifies, but medium-to-long-term trends remain intact.
Disclaimer: The above content was compiled using AI-powered search tools and verified manually prior to publication. It does not constitute investment advice.
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