April 10 Market Recap: Dow Soars 1,325 Points, Logging Year’s Largest Gain; Oil Prices Plunge 16%
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April 10 Market Recap: Dow Soars 1,325 Points, Logging Year’s Largest Gain; Oil Prices Plunge 16%
On the second full trading day after the ceasefire, the market’s rally continues, but reality is catching up to the headlines.
Navigating Web3 tides with focused insightsAuthor: TechFlow
U.S. Equities: Seven Consecutive Gains; Dow Jones Finally Returns to Breakeven
On Thursday, Wall Street closed the day in a seemingly contradictory script: oil prices rebounded, the Strait of Hormuz remained effectively closed, and initial jobless claims exceeded expectations—yet equities still rose.
The S&P 500 gained 0.62% to 6,824.66, marking its seventh consecutive day of gains—the longest streak since October last year. The Nasdaq rose 0.83% to 22,822.42. The most significant milestone belonged to the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA), which climbed 275.88 points (+0.58%) to 48,185.80, turning its year-to-date return positive at +0.25%. Six weeks of war-related anxiety were erased in just one week of ceasefire-driven rebound.
The morning session started on a pessimistic note. Iranian Parliament Speaker Ali Larijani claimed overnight that “three clauses” of the ceasefire had already been violated and described negotiations with the U.S. as “unreasonable.” In response, former President Trump posted on social media: “If Iran does not abide by a real agreement, shooting will resume—and on a scale larger and stronger than anyone has ever seen.” All three major indices opened lower, with the DJIA briefly dropping over 200 points.
The turning point came from an unexpected development: Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu agreed to hold direct talks with Lebanon at the U.S. State Department. This news triggered a sharp afternoon rally. Israel’s strikes against Lebanon—which killed 112 people in Beirut—were the direct reason Iran cited for re-closing the Strait of Hormuz. If Israel is willing to negotiate, Iran loses one key justification for refusing to reopen the Strait.
The market’s logic chain runs as follows: Israel negotiates with Lebanon → Iran loses its “Israeli breach” pretext → probability of Strait reopening rises → oil prices fall → inflationary pressure eases. Though fragile, this chain was sufficient to support yet another green candle.
By sector, technology stocks continued to lead gains. BlackBerry surged 10% premarket on better-than-expected earnings, while CoreWeave rose following an expanded partnership with Meta. Software stocks began to diverge after their sustained rally, with some firms seeing profit-taking.
On the economic data front, two figures merit attention. The February core PCE price index rose 3.0% year-on-year—matching expectations. As the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, 3.0% remains well above the 2% target but—at least—did not worsen further. Initial jobless claims rose to 219,000, above the expected 210,000, signaling another crack in the labor market.
Data from Redfin revealed the war’s spillover into the real economy: home purchase agreements fell 2.4% year-on-year for the four weeks ending April 5—the weakest reading in three months. Mortgage rates rebounded from below 6% to 6.4% following the outbreak of hostilities, prompting both buyers and sellers to stand aside. One line from Redfin’s report deserves reflection: “If the ceasefire holds, mortgage rates could return to around 6%.” The success or failure of the two-week truce is now spreading from financial markets into households across the country.
Goldman Sachs’ post-ceasefire analysis offered a sober assessment: if the Strait remains closed for another month, Brent crude’s annual average price would exceed $100 per barrel. Goldman’s base-case forecast is that the Strait will begin resuming traffic by this weekend, then gradually return to pre-war levels over the next month. “The situation remains fluid,” analyst Daan Struyven wrote, “and we see upside risks to our price forecasts.”
Oil: Rebounded from $94 to $98—Reality Catches Up to Headlines
After Wednesday’s 16% plunge, oil prices recovered part of those losses on Thursday.
WTI rose over 3% to $97.87 per barrel, briefly reclaiming the $100 level intraday. Brent rose about 1% to $95.92.
The rebound had a simple cause: markets realized Wednesday’s steep drop had priced in an overly optimistic scenario. The Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed—Iran’s Revolutionary Guard continues requiring prior authorization from passing vessels via radio broadcast, Fars News Agency explicitly stated tanker passage is “fully suspended,” and MarineTraffic data shows only single-digit merchant ships transiting daily—down from the normal 100–135. Over 800 cargo vessels remain stranded in the Persian Gulf.
A shipowner’s comment to CNBC best captures the situation: “We don’t know how to transit the Strait during the ceasefire. We can’t reach Iranian authorities. Most importantly, our crew’s safety is paramount—we won’t proceed without absolute security guarantees.”
A subtle divergence exists between White House and Pentagon messaging. Defense Secretary Hegseth declared the Strait “open,” claiming U.S. and Israeli forces achieved a “capital-V military victory.” By contrast, White House Press Secretary Leavitt’s wording leaned closer to reality: “The President’s expectation and demand is for the Strait to reopen immediately, rapidly, and safely—without restrictions.” If the Strait were truly open, why would it require a “demand” to reopen?
Even more unsettling is the narrative rift over the ceasefire itself. Semi-official Iranian news agency Tasnim reported the U.S. had tentatively agreed to terms including “Iran retaining control of the Strait of Hormuz, uranium enrichment, lifting all sanctions, paying reparations, and withdrawing U.S. troops.” The White House has never confirmed these terms. Iran’s military claimed it “forced the U.S. and Israel to accept surrender conditions,” while the U.S. Defense Secretary said “Iran begged for this ceasefire.” Both sides declared victory domestically.
A number worth tracking: Iran and Oman plan to impose tolls on vessels transiting the Strait. Previously treated as an international waterway, the Strait has never been subject to such fees. The White House has explicitly opposed any form of toll. Unless resolved at the Islamabad talks, the Strait’s genuine reopening will remain distant.
Saturday’s Islamabad talks are confirmed: U.S. delegation led by Vance, Special Envoy Witkoff, and Kushner—marking the highest-level face-to-face U.S.-Iran contact in 40 days of war.
Gold: Consolidating Near $4,800
Gold prices consolidated near the $4,800 threshold. In the first two days following the ceasefire, gold’s primary driver shifted from “geopolitical safe-haven demand” to “rate-cut expectations + weakening dollar.”
Thursday’s core PCE data (3.0%) provided no new directional signal. While 3.0% confirms inflation remains off track toward the 2% target, it at least showed no acceleration. The Fed’s March meeting minutes indicated policymakers growing “more open” to hiking rates—but Vice Chair Jefferson’s remarks on Tuesday added nuance: he noted the duration of the energy shock would determine the inflation path, suggesting rate-hike discussions could be paused if oil prices fall due to the ceasefire.
The 10-year Treasury yield stabilized near 4.29%. If it sustains a decline below 4.30%—a key threshold previously flagged by precious metals analysts—gold and silver would gain fresh upward momentum.
Technically, $4,800–$4,850 represents a critical resistance zone. A breakout could target $4,980 (the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement of March’s decline). Failure to hold support could trigger a pullback to $4,600–$4,480.
Cryptocurrencies: BTC Holds Above $71,000, Awaits Islamabad Talks
Bitcoin has traded above $71,000 for three consecutive days, continuing to absorb the risk-on sentiment generated by the ceasefire.
From an extreme fear reading of 8—its lowest level in 48 days—to this week’s three-week high of $72,738, BTC delivered a robust recovery. Yet breaking through the critical $72,000–$75,000 resistance zone requires additional catalysts. $71,500 has been tested multiple times—last week acting as an impenetrable wall, and this week briefly breached before retreating.
The crypto market’s current pricing logic has shifted from “geopolitical panic trades” to “macroeconomic expectation trades.” Bitcoin’s correlation with the Nasdaq has risen again during this rally, indicating markets are pricing BTC as a high-beta tech asset. If oil prices sustainably decline post-ceasefire and inflation improves over the next one to two months, rate-cut expectations could re-enter focus—propelling BTC toward $75,000 or higher.
Conversely, if the Islamabad talks collapse, Strait tensions reignite, and oil surges back above $110, BTC would likely test $65,000 support.
Strategic investors continue accumulating, holding roughly $58 billion. The rebound in the Fear & Greed Index—from an extreme fear reading of 8 to ~20 today—confirms a short-term bottom. Yet the gap between sustaining $71,000 and breaking $75,000 remains a “faith vacuum” awaiting fundamental validation.
A notable industry development: The SEC has scheduled a roundtable on the CLARITY Act for April 16—an initiative potentially delivering long-awaited regulatory clarity for digital assets. Should the ceasefire and regulatory tailwinds converge in late April, BTC may challenge the historical statistical pattern showing a 69% probability of gains in April.
Today’s Summary: From Panic to Euphoria to Reality Check
April 10—the second full trading day following the ceasefire—saw the market’s rally persist, even as reality catches up to headlines:
U.S. Equities: S&P 500 posted seven straight gains to 6,824.66—the longest streak in six months. The DJIA turned positive for the year at +0.25%. Israel’s agreement to negotiate with Lebanon provided fresh bullish rationale.
Oil: WTI rebounded 3% to $97.87. The Strait remains closed, with over 800 vessels stranded. Goldman warned: another month of closure would push Brent’s annual average above $100.
Gold: Prices consolidated near $4,800. Core PCE at 3.0% offered no new direction—markets await the Fed’s definitive signal on the post-ceasefire inflation trajectory.
Cryptocurrencies: BTC held above $71,000 for three days. Market logic shifted from geopolitical panic to macroeconomic expectations—with rate-cut expectations emerging as the next key driver.
The market has answered the question “Is the ceasefire worth celebrating?”—the DJIA gained nearly 1,600 points this week.
But the harder question remains: What will Islamabad deliver?
Three landmines sit on Saturday’s negotiation table: who controls the Strait (Iran demands tolls; the U.S. insists on free navigation), whether Israel’s strikes on Lebanon constitute a ceasefire violation (Iran says yes; Israel says no), and how to resolve Iran’s uranium enrichment and sanctions issues. A breakdown on any single issue could erase this week’s 1,600-point DJIA gain within 48 hours.
Seven straight gains represent the market’s “yes” vote for the ceasefire. But the 800 vessels stranded in the Persian Gulf remind us: voting and settlement remain separated by an entire strait.
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