Prediction: MegaETH's first points program project, how much revenue can it generate?
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Prediction: MegaETH's first points program project, how much revenue can it generate?
As we get closer to MegaETH's launch and after it officially goes live, Cap's attention and TVL will continue to grow.
Navigating Web3 tides with focused insightsAuthor: Chef Goose
Translation: TechFlow
The purpose of this article is not to teach you about Cap, but rather to make a bold and potentially inaccurate speculation focused on MegaETH's first points program. Cap is an innovative stablecoin protocol—more details about which I can explain another time, or you can watch @phtevenstrong’s recently released video in this article.
Cap is the first project to be included in MegaMafia (@megaeth’s accelerator program). They are already live on Ethereum and running a points program.
As for why they chose to launch on Ethereum, let’s hear from founder @Benjamin918_:
This points program is called the Cap Frontier Program and has been running since August 18. If you want to learn more details, refer to the following articles:
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Cap Frontier Program - Epoch #1 (Start date: August 18)
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Cap Frontier Program - Epoch #2 (Start date: September 1)
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Cap Frontier Program - Epoch #3 (Start date: October 13)
Available Data
So, how much is one point worth?
Let’s start with an overview of existing data:
According to the Dune analytics dashboard, as of the time of writing, 115,947,711,804 Caps have been distributed.
Epoch #1 launched on August 18—the program has been running for 71 days.
An average of 1,633,066,363 points are issued per day.
The program is expected to continue until January 18, 2026 (but may end earlier based on internal metrics).
This means there are still 83 days remaining in the program.
Speculation
Disclaimer: I often make mistakes in math—hopefully not this time.
Based on the following assumptions:
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The program will continue until January 18, 2026
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Daily issuance rate remains constant
Under these assumptions, the total supply of points would reach approximately 250,000,000,000.
Based on this, we can explore different scenarios using the table below:
Providing an Excel spreadsheet to make my mathematical speculation appear more credible.
For those less familiar with such tables, here’s how to read it:
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Rows represent the proportion of the airdrop supply that participants in the Cap Frontier Program could receive. Typically, generous airdrops fall within the 20%-30% range.
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Columns represent the token’s fully diluted valuation (FDV) at launch. Frankly, I’m uncertain about valuation expectations, so I’ve set a wide range. As for specific values, I’ll leave that to smarter people to speculate boldly.
So, how much is it actually worth?
Right now, the dollar value of each point isn’t high—because they’ve issued a massive number of points. So let’s see what it might look like under different scenarios:
Let’s look at it another way:
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Currently, 150 million points are needed to enter the top 1%
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Currently, 5.9 million points are needed to enter the top 10%
I personally expect that as we get closer to—and after—MegaETH’s official launch, @capmoney_’s visibility and total value locked (TVL) will continue to grow.
Should you invest in Cap?
I’m personally in the top 1% of the points program, so I may be biased, but I think you should consider it. Here’s why:
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Talented team
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Strong idea and execution
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More than half the program time remains (so you're not too late)
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Growing community interest (current TVL at $350 million)
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Opportunity to access the MegaETH ecosystem. MegaETH and other projects in the ecosystem are certainly watching Cap users. The first signal? Cap users will have better chances in public sales! You definitely don’t want to miss the next opportunity!
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A high-quality project flying under the radar. Almost no one has heard of Cap yet, so its potential may still be untapped.
Even if you can’t participate in the public sale this week, nothing stops you from positioning yourself early within the @megaeth ecosystem.
Thank you for your time reading.
P.S. Thanks to @0xasrequired for allowing me to use his iconic "bold speculation" tag.
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