The Golden Cross Trap After $110K? Bitcoin Outlook and Holding Recommendations
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The Golden Cross Trap After $110K? Bitcoin Outlook and Holding Recommendations
Generally, the appearance of a golden cross signals an upward trend, but history shows it may instead precede a sharp decline.
Navigating Web3 tides with focused insightsAuthor: cyclop
Translation: Tim, PANews
Everyone thinks $140,000 is the next target, but things won't unfold that way.
After analyzing all historical scenarios and market data, why do I believe Bitcoin is about to experience a slight downturn?
Golden Cross: Blessing or Curse?
A Golden Cross occurs when the 50-day moving average crosses above the 200-day moving average. In technical analysis, this pattern is generally regarded as a buy signal or bullish indicator.
But what if I told you it's not that simple—and that a Golden Cross could actually trigger a sharp drop?
Let me explain.
Yes, fundamentally speaking, a Golden Cross indicates short-term momentum overtaking long-term momentum (typically seen as bullish).
However, historical data shows that each time a Golden Cross forms, Bitcoin is followed by an immediate 10% plunge. Only after this drop does Bitcoin strongly rebound and go on to reach new all-time highs.
Let’s dive into specific cases:
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In February 2021, after Bitcoin’s 50-day MA crossed above its 200-day MA, it plunged 10% within seven days.
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In March 2024, Bitcoin dropped 11% before violently surging to new highs.
It turns out the emergence of a Golden Cross is merely the final shakeout move by major players before a real rally—designed to shake out weak hands (paper hands and retail investors)—paving the way for genuine price breakthroughs.
And once the breakout happens, it triggers a wave of FOMO-driven capital inflows.
Those who exited earlier jump back in due to fear of missing out, further fueling an even stronger upward surge.
This is how the Golden Cross mechanism truly works.
This week, Bitcoin saw an approximately 8% pullback, consistent with past patterns. The current rebound suggests strong buying support around $104,000–$105,000.
On the other hand, it's evident that upward momentum above $110,000 has already been exhausted.
(This leads to "news overconsumption," where positive news fails to generate any meaningful market reaction.)
What Comes Next?
If Bitcoin can hold above $105,000 (which we are likely to achieve), it will set its sights on $150,000, replaying the classic Golden Cross trajectory.
If it breaks below the $100,000 level, a minor correction to the $90,000–$95,000 range is expected.
If you don’t have a position yet, now is a good opportunity to enter. I am strongly bullish in the short term.
At the same time, however, my stance is more risk-averse: holding only strong blue-chip assets like Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Solana, along with a select few promising altcoins with investment potential, such as Cookie, W, and IOTA.
If you already have a position and are unsure whether to sell or add more, stick to your strategy.
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