Tariff Policy Eases as Fed Governor's Rate Cut Comments Send BTC Back to $95,000 | Hotcoin Research Market Insights
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Tariff Policy Eases as Fed Governor's Rate Cut Comments Send BTC Back to $95,000 | Hotcoin Research Market Insights
This week, the market saw a significant issuance of stablecoins, with large net inflows into U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs and small net inflows into Ethereum ETFs.
Navigating Web3 tides with focused insightsAuthor: Hotcoin Research
Cryptocurrency Market Performance
The current total market capitalization of cryptocurrencies stands at $2.94 trillion, with BTC accounting for 63.45%, or $1.87 trillion. Stablecoin market cap is $238 billion, up 1.61% over the past seven days, with USDT representing 61.66% of that.
This week, BTC price showed volatile upward movement, currently trading at $94,734; ETH fluctuated within a range, now priced at $1,800.
Among the top 200 projects on CoinMarketCap, most declined while a few rose: VIRTUAL gained 98.2% over 7 days, BRETT surged 92.8%, TRUMP increased by 81.1%, and TURBO jumped 122.77%.
This week, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs saw net inflows of $3.033 billion; U.S. spot Ethereum ETFs recorded net inflows of $157 million.
The "Fear & Greed Index" on April 26 was 65 (lower than last week). This week's sentiment: 2 days fearful, 2 days neutral, and 3 days greedy.
Market Outlook: This week witnessed significant stablecoin issuance, substantial net inflows into U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs, and minor net inflows into Ethereum ETFs. As the Trump administration softened its stance on high tariffs and Federal Reserve officials suggested potential rate cuts, market confidence strengthened significantly. BTC broke through $95,000 from $85,000, driven primarily by large institutional and corporate buy orders, with altcoins rising accordingly.
The market has entered a phase of greed. The probability of a 25-basis-point rate cut by the Fed in May is only 3.5%, lower than last week, indicating no hope for a May cut—though a June cut remains likely. The broader market is expected to consolidate narrowly before breaking out; any slight positive news for crypto could push BTC back into six figures.
Understanding the Present
Weekly Major Events Recap
1. On April 19, ABCDE co-founder Du Jun announced on social media that ABCDE has officially halted new project investments and suspended fundraising for its second fund;
2. On April 19, according to the latest CNBC National Survey of American Economics, President Donald Trump’s handling of issues such as tariffs, inflation, and government spending triggered widespread dissatisfaction, causing his economic approval rating to drop to the lowest level since taking office;
3. On April 22, Decrypt reported that Paul Atkins, the newly appointed Chair of the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), will face the review of 15 altcoin and meme token ETF applications upon assuming office, involving more than 70 filings;
4. On April 23, market reports indicated that U.S. President Trump stated tariffs on Chinese goods would not reach 145%, but would be significantly reduced—though not eliminated entirely;
p>5. On April 23, Cantor, a financial services firm led by Brandon Lutnick—the son of U.S. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick—is collaborating with SoftBank, Tether, and cryptocurrency exchange Bitfinex to form a bitcoin investment consortium exceeding $3 billion;6. On April 23, the White House is set to reach comprehensive agreements with Japan and India to avoid broad U.S. tariffs, although many complex details may be deferred for future discussions;
7. On April 24, official announcements revealed that the top 25 TRUMP token holders will be invited to an exclusive pre-dinner reception and dinner with Donald Trump. Additionally, TRUMP’s official team arranged a special VIP White House tour for these whale holders the following day;
8. On April 24, New Hampshire’s Bitcoin Reserve Bill HB 302 passed the Senate Finance Committee vote with a result of 4 in favor and 1 opposed;
9. On April 25, the Federal Reserve announced the withdrawal of regulatory guidance concerning banks' involvement in crypto assets and dollar-denominated tokens, simultaneously updating related business expectations. This move aims to align regulatory requirements with evolving risks and further support innovation within the banking system. On the same day, Raydium posted a tweet with emojis related to airdrops, possibly signaling an upcoming distribution.
Macroeconomic Developments
1. On April 24, Federal Reserve Governor Waller stated that as unemployment rises, interest rate cuts may begin;
2. On April 23, CME's "Fed Watch" data showed a 3.5% probability of a 25-basis-point rate cut by the Fed in May, with a 96.5% chance of rates being held steady;
3. On April 24, Bitcoin News reported that Samson Mow, CEO of bitcoin technology company JAN3, met with Japanese Senator Satoshi Hamada to discuss the urgent need for Japan to develop a national Bitcoin strategy.
ETFs
Data shows that between April 21 and April 25, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs had net inflows of $3.033 billion. As of April 25, GBTC (Grayscale) has seen cumulative outflows of $22.642 billion, currently holding $18.246 billion in assets, while IBIT (BlackRock) holds $55.646 billion. The total market value of U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs stands at $111.026 billion.
U.S. spot Ethereum ETFs had net inflows of $157 million.
Looking Ahead
Event Announcements
1. The Staking Summit will take place in Dubai on April 28–29, 2025;
2. TOKEN2049 Dubai 2025 will be held in Dubai from April 30 to May 1, 2025;
3. Canada Crypto Week will run from May 11 to 17, 2025, in Toronto, Canada;
4. Bitcoin 2025 will be held in Las Vegas, USA, from May 27 to 29.
Project Updates
1. Delulu, an AI-powered on-chain trading and whale-tracking platform, will distribute Lulu points, cash coupons, and other rewards to beta traders before April 29 (over a 21-day period);
2. Arcium public testnet will launch on April 30;
3. Token claim window for Definitive, an on-chain trade execution platform, remains open until May 1, 2025;
4. Echos, an AI agent launched by Stride, a liquid staking protocol in the Cosmos ecosystem, announced it will shut down on May 1, urging users to withdraw funds before permanent closure.
Key Events
1. Cboe Digital, the crypto division of the Chicago Options Exchange, plans to launch a new Bitcoin futures product on April 28, pending regulatory approval. Developed in partnership with FTSE Russell, this new cash-settled product will be based on the XBTF index—equivalent to one-tenth of the FTSE Bitcoin Index—and will settle on the last business day of each month;
2. A Nigerian court has postponed the trial of Binance and its executives over tax evasion charges to April 30, allowing local tax authorities time to respond to the cryptocurrency exchange's request to revoke service of court documents via email;
3. Deadline for Terraform Labs creditor claims portal submission is May 1, 2025, at 7:59 AM;
4. According to Techinasia, crypto investment platform Bake will cease operations in Singapore starting May 1.
Token Unlocks
1. IOTA (IOTA) will unlock 15.16 million tokens on April 30, worth approximately $2.54 million, representing 0.41% of circulating supply;
2. Renzo (REZ) will unlock 864 million tokens on April 30, valued at around $13.08 million, or 8.64% of circulating supply;
3. dYdX (ETHDYDX) will unlock 8.33 million tokens on May 1, worth about $5.64 million, or 1.13% of circulating supply;
4. Omni Network (OMNI) will unlock 16.64 million tokens on May 2, valued at approximately $45.97 million, or 16.64% of circulating supply.
About Us
Hotcoin Research, as the core investment research hub of the Hotcoin ecosystem, is dedicated to providing global digital asset investors with professional, in-depth analysis and forward-looking insights. We have built a three-pillar service framework of "trend analysis + value discovery + real-time tracking," delivering precise market interpretations and practical strategies through deep dives into industry trends, multidimensional evaluations of promising projects, and round-the-clock monitoring of market volatility. Supported by weekly dual-updates of our strategy livestream “Top Coin Picks” and daily news digest “Blockchain Today,” we cater to investors across all levels. Leveraging advanced data analytics models and extensive industry networks, we empower novice investors to build solid understanding frameworks while helping professional institutions capture alpha returns, collectively seizing value growth opportunities in the Web3 era.
Risk Disclaimer
The cryptocurrency market is highly volatile and inherently risky. We strongly advise investors to fully understand these risks and conduct investments strictly within a sound risk management framework to ensure capital safety.
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