ETF funds "bleeding out," BTC drops to test bottom at $70,000?
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ETF funds "bleeding out," BTC drops to test bottom at $70,000?
The decline in the crypto market coincided with the sell-off in other risk assets such as U.S. stocks.
Navigating Web3 tides with focused insightsBy: Mary Liu, BitpushNews
Investor interest in risk assets continues to wane amid escalating global trade tensions and broad-based selling pressure in the crypto market. Over the past 24 hours, Bitcoin dropped as low as $82,131.90, its weakest level since November last year, while Ethereum fell near $2,300.00. XRP and Solana both declined nearly 5%, reflecting fragile market sentiment overall.
Renewed Trade War Fears: Macroeconomic Clouds
U.S. President Trump stated on February 26 local time that tariffs on the European Union would be announced soon, potentially at a rate of 25%, with planned measures also targeting Mexico and Canada, reigniting concerns over a global trade war. Although Trump previously expressed hopes for an agreement with the EU, the advancement of tariff plans has dampened market sentiment.
The crypto market's decline coincided with sell-offs in other risk assets such as U.S. equities. Trump’s repeated threats of additional tariffs, including potential levies on copper imports, have further heightened market uncertainty. Additionally, weak U.S. consumer confidence data has sparked concerns about economic slowdown, posing pressure on the U.S. economy, which relies heavily on private consumption.
Bitcoin ETF Outflows: Micro Market Impact
This week, U.S.-listed Bitcoin ETFs saw nearly $1 billion in outflows—the largest single-day outflow since the launch of spot ETFs in March 2024. Fidelity and BlackRock’s Bitcoin ETFs recorded daily outflows of $344.7 million and $164.4 million respectively.
Standard Chartered warned that continued ETF outflows could place further downward pressure on Bitcoin prices. Geoff Kendrick, the bank’s head of digital asset research, noted that since the U.S. election, the average purchase price for Bitcoin ETFs has been $97,000, resulting in a current net loss of approximately $1.3 billion.
Technical Analysis Check-Up: Is $70,000 the Next Target?
Ruslan Lienkha, Market Director at YouHodler, told FXStreet: "From a technical perspective, the next target for Bitcoin is around $70,000, a strong support zone. However, we’d only expect to see that level reached if negative sentiment dominates U.S. equities. U.S. indices have fallen for several days, but it's too early to conclude that the broader uptrend has ended—it may just be a market correction."
Data from TradingView shows fair value gaps (FVGs) between $76,900–$80,216 and $81,500–$85,072 are key levels where potential buyers may accumulate Bitcoin, possibly laying the foundation for a rebound.
An FVG occurs when rapid price movement, driven by market sentiment or insufficient liquidity, results in a lack of trading volume over a certain price range. These gaps typically manifest as price jumping directly from one level to another, skipping an intermediate zone, forming a "blank" area. FVG zones are considered areas where price may return to fill the gap.
Joel Kruger, Cryptocurrency Strategist at LMAX Group, pointed out that Bitcoin has "strong support" in the $70,000–$75,000 range. He suggested this level could form a "higher low" with strong attraction, setting the stage for the next major rally that could push Bitcoin beyond $110,000 and reach new all-time highs.
Bullish and Bearish Forces Intertwined: Market Not Entirely Gloomy
Meanwhile, Ruslan Lienkha, Market Head at YouHodler, said last week’s Bybit hack had limited impact on institutional investor confidence. He noted that institutions typically follow strict capital management protocols—allocating only the liquidity needed for daily trading to centralized exchanges (CEX), conducting large trades via OTC markets, and storing long-term holdings in self-custody solutions.
On the regulatory front, positive signals emerged: the SEC concluded its multi-year investigations into Gemini and Uniswap Labs without taking enforcement action. Previously, the SEC also informed Coinbase it would drop litigation against it (pending final confirmation), and terminated probes into Robinhood and OpenSea.
Overall, the crypto market remains cautious in the short term. The outlook ahead will depend heavily on this week’s U.S. initial jobless claims and PCE data, which may provide further directional cues for the market.
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