Insights from the review of non-Bitcoin crypto assets in previous bull markets
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Insights from the review of non-Bitcoin crypto assets in previous bull markets
How to Survive the Bull Market "Trap"?
Navigating Web3 tides with focused insightsAuthor: BowTied Bull
Translation: Baihua Blockchain
As we enter 2025, it's customary at the turn of a new year to reflect on the past and look ahead to the future.
Looking back over the history of the crypto industry, we can observe an interesting phenomenon: every four years there is an "alt season," during which everything in the space seems to rise. You might hear that even your alcoholic uncle made a fortune by buying some animal-themed meme coin—possibly while drunk.
By 2025, a true alt season hasn't fully arrived yet. While no one can predict how wild this upcoming cycle will be, I want to remind everyone that altcoin rallies typically escalate rapidly and may end just as suddenly. Once the crash begins, losses could go beyond -99.99%—they could mean total collapse.
Until then, everyone remains immersed in prosperity and entertainment. So, let’s take a moment to review previous alt seasons—how they unfolded and whether we can extract any valuable lessons.
2012–2013 Alt Season: The Early Enthusiasts, Peak Market Cap Reaches $15 Billion
We know that blindly speculative investors are likely to reappear in today’s market. This exact scenario played out before—in 2013—and the price action became particularly fascinating.
During the 2013 "alt season," Bitcoin was still in its early development phase, with a total market cap of around $1 billion. A whale transaction at the time amounted to roughly $100,000. Mt. Gox CEX was still operational, and many early investors were people who frequented events like Magic: The Gathering trading card games (which also provides context for the eventual Mt. Gox incident).
At the time, there was a popular idea about improving Bitcoin’s transaction speed—specifically, reducing block times—which was considered a groundbreaking innovation.
Litecoin (LTC): Still active today, Litecoin originated from Charlie Lee’s concept of shortening Bitcoin’s 10-minute block time to just 2.5 minutes.
LTC surged from approximately $0.10 to $48—a gain of nearly 47,900%. It saw another major rally in 2017, after which Charlie Lee sold all his holdings, stating “Bitcoin is fine without me.” (Everyone knows what it means when a founder sells 100% of their stake.)
Namecoin: A Bitcoin fork designed to create decentralized domain names (similar in concept to ENS using ".eth" extensions). Its price once spiked to around $13 but quickly crashed. From low to high, it gained about 30x. Interestingly, it still exists today, currently trading near $1.
Peercoin (PPC): One of the earliest Proof-of-Stake tokens (a mechanism now used to secure ETH), Peercoin experienced two major rallies—one in 2013 and another in 2017 during the ETH ICO boom. At its peak, it reached ~$7, up 60–70x from its lows. Naturally, it never achieved mainstream adoption and eventually fell to $0.42. (That said, barring outright Ponzi schemes like Bitconnect or LUNA, most assets won’t truly go to zero.)
The Hype: Bitcoin eventually hit $1,200, lifting nearly all altcoins due to rising public interest. Any project posting on BitcoinTalk could skyrocket purely through speculation. Today, the closest equivalent might be a celebrity-endorsed memecoin or one named after a famous person.
Mt. Gox Collapse: When Mt. Gox collapsed, the party ended. A major hack triggered a sharp drop in Bitcoin’s price—down roughly 85–90%, depending on where you define the bottom—while altcoins plunged more than 99%.
2017 Alt Season: The ICO Boom and Rise of Ethereum, Peak Market Cap Hits $800 Billion
During the subsequent bear market, several pivotal developments occurred. Ethereum emerged as a smart contract platform, aiming to enable programmable money. This was genuine innovation—it allowed not only token transfers but also the creation of smart contracts, fundamentally changing the game.
Like many things in crypto, Ethereum came with familiar risks. The DAO (Decentralized Autonomous Organization) was hacked, losing over $100 million, leading to a blockchain split into ETH and ETC. Some still argue the fork was a mistake, though we won’t debate that here—just noting it as part of history.
By 2016, people realized new tokens could be issued directly on the Ethereum blockchain, giving birth to Initial Coin Offerings (ICOs). In an ICO, projects sell tokens directly to investors. In 2017, the ICO frenzy exploded, bringing countless scams into the spotlight.
Ethereum (ETH): Since issuing tokens required ETH, demand drove its price from around $8 to $1,400 by January 2018—an unimaginable return at the time. Today, ETH trades around $3,650.
Ripple (XRP): Still viewed as the “banker’s coin,” Ripple’s thesis was that it would overnight replace SWIFT as the de facto financial standard. Despite being centralized (which most didn’t mind), it attracted millions. XRP surged from ~$0.01 to $3.80 and currently trades at $2.41.
Oddly, Ripple’s investor base remains largely retail. In the recent rally, similar patterns emerged—XRP dominated TikTok discussions, sparking absurd speculation like “What if it reaches Bitcoin’s market cap?”—talk of a $4 trillion valuation seemed surreal.
Litecoin (LTC): As mentioned earlier, LTC rallied again, peaking at $360. Even after Charlie Lee sold all his coins, it reached $384 in 2021!
EOS: Raised $4 billion via ICO, branded itself the “Ethereum killer.” It briefly hit $22 but has never reclaimed that high.
NEO: Another self-proclaimed “Ethereum killer,” dubbed “China’s Ethereum.” NEO rose from $0.20 to $200—a 1,000x return.
Bitcoin Cash (BCH): Roger Ver, a well-known figure in Bitcoin circles, supported larger blocks and championed Bitcoin Cash. At block 478,559 in August 2017, each BTC holder received 1 BCH. Backed by Ver, BCH surged to ~$3,800 but gradually faded from relevance.
Other Ethereum Killers: Numerous tokens were marketed as “Ethereum killers” (ADA, Tron, etc.). Simply having a whitepaper seemed enough to trigger 10x or 100x gains. Projects like Filecoin and Tezos launched during this period.
Yield Scams: If you think BlockFi, LUNA, Celsius, and Voyager were the first yield scams, think again. The first large-scale Ponzi scheme in yield was Bitconnect, which cost many investors millions.
Regulatory Crackdown: Just like in the 2021 cycle, regulatory intervention and exposure of Ponzi schemes devastated the market. The SEC began targeting projects like EOS, triggering a solid 85% correction. By March 2020, Bitcoin had dropped to around $3,500.
Most tokens at the time were pure scams, so the alt market suffered near-total collapse—almost -99.999999%. Back then, if your token appeared in a Super Bowl ad, its price could instantly jump fivefold. VIBE is a classic example.
VIBE surged from $0.04 to over $2—but eventually shrank to a mere $262 in total market cap.
2021 Alt Season: DeFi, NFTs, and Memecoins, Peak Market Cap Hits $3 Trillion
In 2021, due to widely known circumstances, people worked from home, staring at screens with little else to do. The U.S. government printed $10 trillion—just in federal spending alone.
DeFi projects fueled yield farming, NFTs brought JPEGs into the mainstream (selling for millions), and memecoins reached absurd valuations. Bitcoin broke $69,000, ETH hit $4,800, and total crypto market cap surpassed $3 trillion in November 2021.
Dogecoin: Started as a joke, but Elon Musk’s endorsement sent its price parabolic, making it a hot topic on Reddit. Now almost synonymous with Musk’s meme coin and a symbol of government inefficiency. Price jumped from ~$0.005 to $0.74—a ~15,000% gain.
Solana: Marketed as the next “Ethereum killer,” praised for fast transactions and low fees—largely promoted by SBF (now imprisoned). Price soared from $1 to ~$260—a 26,000% increase.
Shiba Inu: A Dogecoin-inspired memecoin that minted thousands of millionaires. From near-zero market cap, it surged by 500,000%.
DeFi Tokens: AAVE, UNI, SUSHI, YFI, and others gained between 10x and 50x. Total Value Locked (TVL) in decentralized finance exceeded hundreds of billions. Today, many DeFi protocols have even higher TVL than at their 2021 peaks!
NFTs:
CryptoPunks: Sold for millions; the cheapest CryptoPunk now costs over 100 ETH.
Bored Ape Yacht Club (BAYC): Became a cultural phenomenon, with floor prices reaching unbelievable levels.
Airdrop Mania: Holding a $100 .eth domain could net you a $40,000 airdrop. You could earn 2% daily or weekly returns just by bridging assets. NFT projects like BAYC airdropped dozens of high-value companion NFTs—totaling billions in free distribution.
Even crazier… nearly every token was rising. Coins like SAFEMOON gained popularity through figures like Dave Portnoy. Celebrities like Snoop Dogg and Paris Hilton endorsed various projects. Tom Brady and Stephen Curry promoted crypto exchanges. Even the now-defunct FTX paid for naming rights to the Miami Heat arena.
Ponzi Schemes: Countless Ponzi schemes emerged. While some accused us of involvement, we weren’t. Fortunately, many avoided major losses. Entrusting your assets to third parties has never been a wise move.
Death Spiral: As liquidity dried up (the funding that previously propped up these projects vanished), the aforementioned Ponzi schemes collapsed. FTX imploded due to user fund theft, followed by renewed SEC enforcement. Massive frauds and rug pulls ultimately led to stricter regulation across the crypto ecosystem.
Key Lessons
1) Take Profits Early: Markets move fast, and greed can creep in. If you catch yourself thinking, “I wish I’d bought twice as much of X,” it’s probably time to sell half and lock in gains. Whether you convert to BTC, ETH, or stablecoins doesn’t matter—the key is avoiding greed.
2) Hype Cycles Repeat: Each alt season has a narrative theme: Bitcoin forks, ICOs, DeFi, NFTs, or memecoins. Once you identify a theme, stick with it—your knowledge in that niche tends to vanish quickly once the cycle ends. Instead of jumping around, focus on one area and ride it to success.
3) Risk Management Is Crucial: Returns can be huge, but everyone’s situation differs. You’re not me, and I’m not my neighbor. Create a personal plan and stick to it—don’t let someone with $100k saying “$10 million isn’t enough to retire” shift your goals.
4) Survivors Thrive: Altcoins come and go, but Bitcoin and Ethereum dominate every cycle. The longer a project survives, the less likely it is to go to zero. If Solana finds real utility beyond Pump.fun by 2025, it may join this elite group.
Have we learned anything from Ponzi schemes? Not really. Judging by current trends, people still don’t understand “Not Your Keys, Not Your Coins,” you can buy crypto stocks or leveraged crypto products through brokers, but understand: holding ETFs or equities means you don’t actually own any cryptocurrency. And you’ll never know how these firms manage your invested assets.
In bull markets, we’re often criticized for not joining the latest memecoin hype. While such speculation appears hot now, careful observation reveals those who stick to strategy and stay calm are steadily accumulating wealth.
In contrast, speculators chasing “10x gains” may grab short-term attention, but their capital and strategies pale compared to anonymous whales who consistently invest month after month. These large players usually have stronger financial foundations and clearer long-term plans. Ultimately, market performance and data prove which strategies lead to real success.
Wishing everyone good luck in 2025.
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