Bitcoin at $90,000: Have Retail Investors FOMOed?
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Bitcoin at $90,000: Have Retail Investors FOMOed?
We haven't seen signs of retail FOMO yet, which suggests the bull market may still be in its early stages.
Navigating Web3 tides with focused insightsAuthor: Matt Crosby
Translation: Luffy, ForesightNews
As Bitcoin re-enters price discovery mode, participants across the crypto market are wondering: has retail FOMO begun? Will we see the surge of retail investors that characterized previous bull cycles? We’ll examine the current state of the Bitcoin market—and what it may signal for the near-term outlook—using data on active addresses, historical cycles, and various market indicators.
Rising Retail Interest
One of the most direct signs of retail interest is the number of newly created Bitcoin addresses. Historically, sharp increases in new addresses have marked the beginning of bull markets as new retail investors enter. However, in recent months, growth in new addresses has not been as rapid as some might expect. Last year, we saw around 791,000 new Bitcoin addresses created in a single day—a strong signal of robust retail interest. In contrast, despite a slight uptick recently, new address creation remains relatively subdued.
Figure 1: Number of new addresses on the Bitcoin network begins to rise
This growing interest is also reflected in Google Trends. While searches for "Bitcoin" have increased over the past month, they remain far below the peaks seen in 2021 and 2017. Retail investors appear curious, but have not yet reached the levels of frenzied excitement associated with full-blown FOMO.
Figure 2: Google search volume for "Bitcoin" is rising, but still relatively low
Shifts Among Holders
We are witnessing a transfer of Bitcoin from long-term holders to newer, short-term holders. This shift in supply distribution could signal the beginning of a new market phase, with experienced investors taking profits and selling to newer market participants. However, the total volume of transferred Bitcoin remains relatively low, suggesting that long-term holders have not begun large-scale sell-offs.
Figure 3: The amount of Bitcoin changing hands to new holders has only slightly increased
Historically, during the 2020–2021 bull run, we observed significant capital flowing from long-term holders to new investors, fueling subsequent price increases. Currently, such a shift is not clearly evident. Despite rising prices, long-term holders continue to hold onto their Bitcoin. This "hold-to-win" behavior suggests strong confidence in further upside potential.
Spot-Driven Rally
A key feature of Bitcoin’s latest price surge is its spot-driven nature—contrasting sharply with previous bull markets fueled by leveraged positions. Open interest in Bitcoin derivatives has seen only a modest increase, especially when compared to prior peaks. For example, open interest was substantially higher just before the collapse of FTX in 2022. A spot-driven market, less reliant on excessive leverage, tends to be more stable and resilient, with fewer investors at risk of forced liquidation.
Figure 4: Open interest has remained low for an extended period, with only a recent slight uptick
Whales Are Accumulating
Interestingly, while the number of retail addresses has not surged significantly, the count of "whale" addresses holding over 100 BTC continues to grow. Over the past few weeks, wallets holding large amounts of BTC have accumulated tens of thousands of Bitcoin—worth billions of dollars. This indicates that even as Bitcoin reaches new all-time highs, whale investors remain confident in further price appreciation.
Figure 5: The number of addresses holding at least 100 BTC has reached its highest level since 2019
In previous bull cycles, whales typically exited or reduced positions near market tops. This time, we are not seeing such behavior. The fact that seasoned holders are accumulating is a strong bullish signal, reflecting deep confidence in the market’s long-term potential.
Conclusion
While Bitcoin’s rally to new all-time highs has renewed attention, we have yet to see clear signs of retail FOMO. This suggests we may still be in the early stages of this bull market. Long-term holders remain confident, whales are accumulating, and leverage levels remain moderate—all pointing to a healthy market poised for continued upward momentum.
As we progress further into the bull cycle, the current market structure suggests there is still room for a broader, retail-driven surge. When that wave arrives, Bitcoin could be propelled to entirely new heights.
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