Halloween Horror Night Observations: Crypto Embarrassments Abound, Where Will the Next Rally Roar From?
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Halloween Horror Night Observations: Crypto Embarrassments Abound, Where Will the Next Rally Roar From?
Looking back at your terrifying, bitter, and heartbreaking crypto journey in 2024.
Navigating Web3 tides with focused insightsIn the treacherous yet hopeful year of 2024, we witnessed the "highlight moment" of Bitcoin ETF approval, as traditional capital led by Wall Street flooded into the market. Bitcoin prices surged past previous highs, reaching a record-breaking $73,000. Meanwhile, meme coins, with their absurdity, spontaneity, and dramatic reversals that defy tradition, went viral globally in a short time due to their explosive propagation potential.
However, it is worth noting that institutional tokens characterized by "high FDV, low circulation" have deterred most retail investors. Token prices continued to fall, idealism faced market skepticism, ultimately triggering structural collapses among venture-backed companies and causing severe imbalances in market structure. As some jokingly put it: "The meme coin you just sold turned out to be a golden dog! The VC-backed token you held for value investment has already halved."
At 9 PM on October 30, 2024, LBank Chinese hosted a Space themed "Halloween Horror Night: Recounting Your Scariest, Most Bitter Crypto Stories of 2024," focusing on discussions around investment losses in 2024, whether a bull market has truly arrived, and how to uncover promising cryptocurrencies—aiming to better seize market opportunities and achieve relatively stable returns amid volatile conditions.
Below is the real-time transcript of the Space discussion:
1: This year, which investment decision left you feeling particularly bitter?
Eric: On August 3, I experienced a devastating liquidation event that made me exit the market. Throughout this year, I invested in Sol and Ordi and achieved certain gains. However, in March 2024, I chose to invest in institutional projects W and ZKL. At the market bottom, I aggressively increased leverage, which eventually led to full liquidation and zero balance in my account. This became one of the most painful experiences in my investment journey.
Mr. Bai: Buy when no one cares, sell when everyone’s excited.
The bitterness and pain are misunderstood by others, yet I still forced a smile. I bought Ethereum more than I should have, allocating a large portion of my portfolio, while watching other assets soar. We should adopt a mindset where even if we lose everything or make profits, we remain humble. This situation is common—I started dollar-cost averaging in March 2021, essentially a lonely and dull investor. It wasn't until 2023 that I broke even, but then failed to sell before prices dropped again, falling into self-doubt. Looking back now, I firmly believe I made the right decisions; one can only earn money within the scope of their own understanding.
Ray: In March and April, I invested in bitSmiley, a stablecoin protocol within the Bitcoin ecosystem. At the time, bitSmiley was leading in the Bitcoin ecosystem niche and had first-mover advantages. Based on this analysis, I believed in the project and purchased its token. It subsequently rose 3–5 times, reaching a market cap of $50 million. Influenced by FOMO, I staked it into Merlin, and as you’ve probably seen, it turned into a rollercoaster ride—but nearly 70% of people made the same choice at that time.
Tianci: Entered the space in 2018, involved in NFTs and airdrop farming. I played more with NFTs earlier, which are essentially fast-racing games where only one in ten thousand projects succeed. Personally, I prefer to withdraw my principal first and then play with profits.
2: What was your biggest lesson? How can we avoid falling into traps?
Mr. Bai: The greatest battle is mental discipline—trading losses are normal. You can't expect to hold through every profit unless you have extreme conviction. For altcoins, a 3–4x gain is typical, but greed drives people to chase higher, resulting in buying high and selling low. Yet executing this in actual trades is extremely difficult. Here are a few suggestions:
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Once a trade ends, let it go—don’t let it affect your next decision;
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Don’t trust anyone;
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Never believe “this time is different”;
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The strong stay strong, the weak stay weak;
Prepare thoroughly before trading—have belief, desire to earn, and the will to reap rewards.
Champions aren’t made in stadiums. If you lose, don’t give up—go learn, and also prepare yourself mentally for losses.
Eric: 1: Never go all-in; enter gradually;
2: Absolutely avoid contracts and leverage;
3: Overcome greed and regret;
4: Resist outside opinions and cultivate independent thinking.
Ray: For me, three points:
1: Analyze rationally, learn to take early profits, avoid FOMO—compounding is the best way to make money;
2: Identify the strongest narratives, follow the 80/20 rule, dare to rotate positions—frequently switch based on evolving narratives and regularly identify widely recognized top stories;
3: Monitor market sentiment—be fearful when others are greedy, and greedy when others are fearful.
3: Where will BTC go in the future? Where are the upcoming opportunities?
Mr. Bai: Holding sentiment varies, and so does outlook for future development. We can use historical data for reference: from 2013 to 2024, Q4 has mostly seen upward trends, typically gaining around 8%. Current gains are under 10%, so historically speaking, Bitcoin could reach $100K. However, after Bitcoin broke below the 200-day moving average in August, I turned bearish and sold my holdings—not because I’m fundamentally bearish, but because I believe in securing profits.
Currently, Bitcoin has strong data support. Wait for pullbacks to buy, and if already holding, stay patient.
Altseason may come. Macroscopically, U.S. rate cuts and monetary easing point in this direction. Just like during past economic crises when the U.S. pushed internet development, today's massive AI investments suggest similar patterns. I firmly believe we're heading toward exponential growth. Therefore, consider positioning in AI tech stocks and AI-related assets.
Tianci: The bull market has already begun—two indicators confirm it: BTC returning to prior bull peak levels and meme coin mania. I recommend dollar-cost averaging. Prices may surpass $100K, though there will be volatility and shakeouts along the way. The full bull market will arrive in 2025.
Ray: Whether the bull arrives depends on macro and political factors. Personally, I think it’s coming:
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BTC broke above $73K, nearing all-time highs;
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New capital entering, Wall Street accumulating;
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Policy: Increased money supply leads to price increases;
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Trump has a high chance of winning;
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Fear & Greed Index: High greed levels signal an impending bull market;
Maintain respect for the market—it might still see black swans. Be patient, wait for pullbacks, and expect new highs.
Eric: I maintain a cautious观望 stance, betting with low probability. Currently, Bitcoin is approaching its previous high near $70K, leaving limited upside. Also, this rally feels odd—Bitcoin is draining liquidity from other assets. If holding institutional tokens, other coins mainly depend on whether fresh capital enters. After ETF approval, I’m skeptical about financial institutions’ involvement, as their behavior contradicts Bitcoin’s core principles of “decentralization and fairness.” In contrast, meme sentiment aligns well with Bitcoin’s value—both represent rebellion against tradition and institutions. I suggest minimizing exposure to institutional tokens in future investments.
4: How to discover quality 100x gems?
Mr. Bai: First, determine what type of investor you are—long-term or short-term—as strategies differ accordingly. Personally, I'm a long-term investor. For any investment target, I dare to buy when it drops and avoid frequent rotation or chasing pumps and dumps. Accuracy in judgment is key. Additionally, consider two main factors:
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Fundamentals: Listing on major exchanges, holder addresses, participating investment firms, etc.;
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Narrative: Innovative token distribution models—buy leaders like Ordi, think long-term;
If engaging in short-term trading, I recommend tokens on Solana, Bitcoin, or within the Bitcoin ecosystem. Organize relevant sector data and categorize coins—when different sectors move together, buy related tokens for short-term gains. For meme coin launches, assess participation based on smart money movements and热度 indicators.
Tianci: My focus is mostly on secondary market operations. For long-term investing, consider team background, professionalism, market size and demand, technological innovation, and community strength and activity. Most importantly, develop your own research perspective. When trading memes, follow hot trends and execute short-term trades.
Ray: Success requires timing, opportunity, people, and harmony—explained across four aspects:
1: Market trend—the project must align with current trends. Conduct thorough market and project research. For example, Goat sits at the intersection of AI and memes, fitting prevailing narratives. Markets crave compelling stories. Goat’s fair launch model represents grassroots-driven innovation;
2: Team background—research via Rootdata. A strong team acts as credibility itself;
3: Community—operational capability, number of on-chain addresses, engagement. Join the group to observe activity levels and conversation quality;
4: Narrative—take memes as an example: meme+AI represents a new token issuance paradigm, an innovative and fair model.
Eric: Add two more points—assess based on incentives and sentiment. Choose an investment approach that suits you and don’t be swayed by others’ opinions.
I personally lean toward long-termism, guided by incentives. When Sol dropped to $7, on-chain data looked healthy, so I bought aggressively, expecting solid upside. When Ordi fell to around $3, I believed BRC20 would rise in the next bull run and generate miner rewards. Holding both delivered substantial returns.
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