After a turnaround in July, August may offer opportunities to enter the market, with Bitcoin expected to deliver a strong performance in the golden September and silver October
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After a turnaround in July, August may offer opportunities to enter the market, with Bitcoin expected to deliver a strong performance in the golden September and silver October
Bitcoin is set to shine in the golden September and silver October, with a potential breakthrough of $100,000.
Navigating Web3 tides with focused insightsBy Asher Zhang
In my previous article, I predicted that Bitcoin would experience a "May slump, June despair, July revival." The core argument behind this forecast was that the Mt. Gox repayments would trigger short-term market panic, which would then be reversed and strongly rebound following Trump's appearance at the Bitcoin Conference. Now that Bitcoin has indeed turned around in July, how might it perform in August? And from a cyclical perspective, what useful investment insights can we derive for investors?
Mt. Gox Repayment-Driven Sell-Off May Not Have Arrived Yet; Trump’s Bold Promises Spark Surge in Crypto Markets
In late July, Bitcoin staged an impressive comeback. First, nearly half of the Mt. Gox repayments were completed, triggering a sell-off (visible between July 22 and July 25). Then, Trump’s passionate speech at the Bitcoin Conference ignited a massive short squeeze. However, current on-chain data suggests the real selling pressure from Mt. Gox may not have materialized yet. Let’s briefly review the timeline of events.
On July 16, Mt. Gox trustee Nobuaki Kobayashi announced: “Following July 5, 2024, on July 16, 2024, the Mt. Gox trustee made partial repayments of Bitcoin and Bitcoin Cash to certain creditors via designated cryptocurrency exchanges under the rehabilitation plan. To date, over 13,000 creditors have received these assets.” Kraken stated in an email that it had successfully received funds (48,641 BTC) from the Mt. Gox trustee for creditors. The platform will work to distribute them as quickly as possible, with deposits expected within 7–14 days. The amount each user receives has been determined by the trustee, and platforms will follow their instructions accordingly.
On July 24, Kraken CEO Dave Ripley posted on X: “Kraken has successfully distributed BTC and BCH from the Mt. Gox estate to creditors. Having been selected by the trustee nearly ten years ago to assist in investigating and returning customer funds, this has been both our honor and duty.”
On July 25, Ki Young Ju, founder and CEO of CryptoQuant, noted on X that after repayments to Mt. Gox creditors, Kraken’s spot Bitcoin trading volume remained normal, indicating no significant sell-off by creditors. Ki Young Ju added that any price declines were likely due to market sentiment rather than actual selling from Mt. Gox.
On July 26, cryptocurrency exchange Bitstamp announced on X that, following security checks, trust assets allocated to Mt. Gox creditors and held at Bitstamp are now fully accessible. For UK-based customers, a separate distribution plan will be developed. Customers will be notified immediately once further information is received from the Mt. Gox trustee.
From July 26 to 27, Donald Trump attended the 2024 Bitcoin Conference as a headline guest, delivering a series of pro-crypto promises that resonated deeply with the crypto community. He expressed near-unreserved support for Bitcoin, claiming its market cap could surpass gold, vowing to remove the SEC chair if elected (due to perceived anti-crypto stance), and pledging to retain seized government-held Bitcoin as strategic reserves.
Retail investors differ from institutional or government actors—their selling behavior tends to be unplanned and highly sensitive to market sentiment. Due to Trump’s extremely bullish rhetoric and his vast influence, retail holders appear more inclined to hold onto their holdings. Thus, this article argues that the anticipated large-scale selling pressure from Mt. Gox creditors has not yet occurred. In a broader sense, retail selling lacks coordination and is difficult to quantify precisely—it usually happens only when prices rise significantly. What deserves close attention is the next major official payout from Mt. Gox. According to the official plan, most repayments are scheduled to be completed within two months, but the trustee may avoid clustering payouts too closely together. Given Bitcoin’s current price trajectory, the remaining major distributions could occur in mid-to-late August.
August Macro Data Will Be Crucial—Could Propel Bitcoin’s ‘Golden September, Silver October’ Rally
Market expectations for a Fed rate cut in September are growing louder. On July 28, Nick Timiraos, known as the “Fed whisperer,” wrote that although Fed officials are unlikely to cut rates next week, developments in inflation and the labor market should allow them to signal a rate cut at their September meeting. Powell, who leans toward acting earlier, continues to weigh the risks of cutting too soon versus waiting too long—a dilemma that may be addressed in the upcoming meeting. Officials want more evidence that inflation is sustainably cooling before crossing the threshold for easing. Nevertheless, there is increasing concern that waiting too long could derail a soft landing. The Fed’s readiness to cut reflects three shifting factors: favorable inflation trends, a cooling labor market, and evolving risk assessments regarding persistent high inflation and unnecessary economic weakness.
We can remain cautiously optimistic about such positive market forecasts. However, based on prior Fed commentary, additional data confirmation remains paramount. Strong macro data could act as a catalyst for Bitcoin. On July 29, 10x Research noted on social media that historical analysis shows Bitcoin returns tend to flatten in August and decline in September. Yet, favorable U.S. monetary policy, potential rate cuts, and the election calendar could offset any downward pressure from the $1 billion worth of token unlocks expected in August. Bitcoin’s dominance is reaching new cycle highs, creating notable market impact. It believes Bitcoin will eventually reach new all-time highs—but may need macroeconomic support. The Fed’s rate decision on August 1 and the CPI report on August 14 will be critical.
This article presents two scenarios: If August macro data is favorable and the Fed delivers a September rate cut as expected, a “Golden September, Silver October” rally for Bitcoin becomes highly probable. Alternatively, if the Fed maintains current rates, we anticipate increased selling pressure in late August linked to remaining Mt. Gox payouts—creating a prime entry opportunity. As September progresses and the U.S. election heats up, Trump’s continued pro-Bitcoin stance will likely drive substantial upward momentum.
History Supports August as a Strategic Entry Point
Bitcoin’s four-year halving cycle exhibits strong seasonality. Below, we analyze Bitcoin’s outlook through the lens of historical cycles.
Digital Asset Research published a study suggesting that the period between August 6 and August 12 could become a pivotal turning point—the final low before a major rally. Monthly charts show that the prior two cycles align closely with the current one. Counting 33 months from the previous major peak and 20 months from the last major trough places us squarely within the July-to-September window—historically the last bottom before a sharp uptrend.
Excluding 2012, in the previous two cycles, prices rose just over 200% from bear market lows—precisely where we stand today. Both timing and price levels are aligned—neither overstretched nor lagging as some commentators suggest.
As shown in the chart, Bitcoin often experiences a sharp rise in August followed by a rapid correction of 20–50%. Last year differs from the other three because it was only the second year of the cycle, yet it still illustrates the seasonal pattern of such moves occurring in August.
Considering price range, time frame, cyclical alignment, and seasonality, the analysis concludes that the crypto market is approaching a likely BTC breakout window in mid-August.
Crypto analyst CryptoChan predicts that #BTC could reach $100,000 by October 2024. The current black line (BTC: MVRV from 2021 to present) remains tightly correlated with the red line (BTC: MVRV from 2013–2017) across the broader cycle. If the black line reaches 2.54 by October, and given the current Realized Price (excluding chain-held BTC dormant for over seven years) of $39,583, the implied price target would be at least ≥$100,000 (2.54 × $39,583). The black line represents BTC: MVRV from 2021 onward; the red line covers 2013–2017, with both cycles aligned to their respective Bitcoin halving dates. Note: MVRV (Market Value to Realized Value) is the ratio of Bitcoin’s market price to the average acquisition cost of all coins on the chain. The version shown here is a modified variant that excludes BTC inactive for over seven years, treating them as lost or permanently dormant.
Conclusion
From a cyclical standpoint, two key takeaways emerge: 1) The period from August 6 to August 12 may mark a critical juncture, potentially featuring seasonal volatility; 2) Bitcoin is poised for a “Golden September, Silver October” rally, possibly breaking $100,000.
Building on earlier analysis, this article suggests shifting the key timing to August 14, when the U.S. releases its CPI report—a potentially pivotal moment for Bitcoin. Additionally, late August may bring heightened volatility, primarily tied to the remaining Mt. Gox payouts. There is broad agreement that “Golden September, Silver October” is likely, driven largely by the fading impact of Mt. Gox selling pressure and the intensifying U.S. election campaign. With Trump’s strong pro-crypto stance gaining momentum, Bitcoin could enter a phase of explosive growth.
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