Bitcoin halving is approaching—why holding firm is the better choice?
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Bitcoin halving is approaching—why holding firm is the better choice?
Trend is your friend, and Bitcoin is your best friend in the crypto casino.
Navigating Web3 tides with focused insightsAuthor: DUO NINE⚡YCC
Translation: TechFlow
Less than a month remains until the next Bitcoin halving, and the recent pullback in Bitcoin is trying to scare you. The whales know this game well—they want you to panic and sell your coins.
Don't fall for it! Hold strong and don't let them intimidate you.
As the bull market continues, more people will try to get their hands on your low-cost tokens. You still have about a year to make money. Don’t sell too early!
The countdown to the halving has begun. Everyone is preparing for massive gains after the halving. Those who sell before April 20, 2024, are easily shaken. You should never sell before the halving. Instead, prepare for the huge rally ahead!
During the last downturn, I bought more altcoins—some of which have already surged over 50%!
Based on past cycles, Bitcoin tends to rise overall for about a year and a half following the halving.
Surprisingly, in this cycle, Bitcoin has broken its previous all-time high (ATH) *before* the halving for the first time ever! I’ve written extensively about this in prior posts. Click here to read, as it can help you craft your exit strategy.
However, this now leaves us with a dilemma…
Where should we begin counting from for the upcoming massive rally?
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January 2024 approval of Bitcoin ETFs?
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Early March 2024 breakout above $69,000 (the old ATH)?
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The April 2024 halving?
This matters because each assumption affects when you should take profits and exit the market. One thing is certain: this cycle is different, and it’s accelerating!
Take a look at the chart below. Notice how the time between ATH to ATH breakouts has shortened: 1,176 days, then 1,085 days, and most recently just 840 days. The latest period was the shortest because BTC set a new record shortly after ETF approval—and crucially, *before* the halving!
Bitcoin historically peaks 10 to 11 months after breaking past the prior all-time high. Therefore, I lean toward setting our starting point at the March 2024 breakout above $69,000, adding 10–11 months from there. If trends hold, this suggests Bitcoin could peak between December 2024 and January 2025.
Waiting a full year and a half after the April 2024 halving may no longer be a wise bet. Given the acceleration of this cycle, I expect we’ll enter a bear market by summer or fall of 2025. Prices are moving faster, not slower!
The most promising projection is shown in the chart below, using the 2016–2017 rally as a baseline (in red). Once current price action deviates from this line, we’ll know whether this cycle is accelerating or slowing. So far, our pace matches—or exceeds—the prior cycle, depending on how March and April candles close. The projected exit window on this chart falls between October 2024 and March 2025. This aligns perfectly with the timeline suggested above.
There will be corrections during the massive rally. Use these dips to rebalance your portfolio and maximize exposure to strong-performing tokens, just as I’ve done over the past two weeks.
I also analyzed historical data compared to the last two bull markets, revealing that Bitcoin's average drawdown in this cycle so far has been 21%.
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2016–2017 bull run: -37% average correction
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2020–2021 bull run: -33% average correction
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2023–2024 bull run: 21% average correction so far
If Bitcoin drops 20%, that’s an immediate buy signal—at least for the coming months. By the end of 2024, however, I wouldn’t risk buying the dip anymore. Also note that bear market corrections have gradually shrunk in magnitude over successive cycles:
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2018–2019 bear market: 84% drawdown
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2021–2022 bear market: 77% drawdown
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2025–2026 bear market: How deep will it go???
Another way to determine if you’re exiting at the right time is to watch whether Coinbase sets a new trading volume record. If quarterly trading volume surpasses $150 billion, you're likely taking profits at the optimal moment. The chart below shows that current volume is steadily climbing.
Finally, don’t be fooled by the whales! They will do everything they can to scare you into selling your Bitcoin—whether during corrections or in the next bear market. Never lose faith in Bitcoin; it has proven every doubter wrong over the past 15 years.
Trend is your friend, and Bitcoin is your best friend in the crypto casino.
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