TechFlow, August 15 — According to Jinshi Data citing a Reuters survey, most economists expect the Federal Reserve to make its first interest rate cut this year in September, followed by another potential cut before year-end under the base-case scenario. Concerns about the health of the U.S. economy are growing steadily.
Among 110 respondents, 67 (61%) anticipate the Fed will lower the benchmark rate by 25 basis points in September to 4.0%–4.25%, marking the first reduction this year and up from 53% in July's survey; one respondent expects a 50 basis point hike.
The remaining 42 expect the Fed to hold rates steady again. Over 60% of respondents (68 out of 110) forecast one or two rate cuts this year, roughly unchanged from last month. However, there is no consensus on the federal funds rate level by the end of 2025. Additionally, 68% of respondents expect that the Fed's independence will not be seriously eroded during the remainder of Powell's term.
