TechFlow news, on August 8, according to Jinshi Data, CICC found that tariffs have actually caused partial rebound in U.S. inflation, but defects in seasonal adjustment methods underestimated inflation over the past two months by nearly 20bp, meaning CPI readings have not yet reflected the true extent of the inflation rebound. The month-on-month CPI may confirm an upward turning point within the next 1–2 months, potentially as early as August 12. The year-on-year CPI upcycle could last about one year, and input-output tables can be used to estimate the magnitude of inflation increase. With U.S. inflation entering an upcycle, the Federal Reserve's rate cut schedule may be disrupted, introducing new uncertainties for global assets.
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