TechFlow news, on July 8, according to Jinshi Data, Goldman Sachs now expects the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates in September, three months earlier than previously forecast. This shift reflects early signs that inflation linked to tariffs has been milder than expected, while disinflationary forces—including slowing wage growth and weakening demand—are emerging. David Mericle, the bank's chief U.S. economist, estimates the probability of a rate cut in September is "slightly above" 50%, with 25-basis-point cuts expected in September, October, and December, followed by two additional cuts by early 2026. Goldman Sachs has also lowered its terminal rate forecast from 3.5%-3.75% to 3%-3.25%.
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