TechFlow, April 12 — According to prediction market Polymarket data, the probability of the United States entering an economic recession in 2025 has risen to 60%. The total trading volume of this prediction market has reached $2.48 million, with an expiration date of February 28, 2026.
Data shows that the probability on this prediction market has been steadily increasing since early March, rising from around 20% to the current 60%. According to market rules, the outcome will be settled as "yes" if the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) declares a recession in 2025, or if data from the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) shows two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth.
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