TechFlow news, April 3 — According to Jinshi Data, the latest market pricing by central banks worldwide:
1. Federal Reserve: Traders now assign nearly a 50% chance of a fourth rate cut by the Fed this year, up from previous expectations of three cuts.
2. European Central Bank: Traders are increasing bets on rate cuts, with a 90% probability of an ECB rate cut in April; rates could fall by 68 basis points this year.
3. Bank of England: Interest rate futures price in about 60 basis points of rate cuts by the BoE for the remainder of 2025, up from a prior expectation of 54.2 basis points.
4. Reserve Bank of Australia: Bond markets have turned dovish, pricing in an 85% chance of a 25-basis-point cut by the RBA in May, with further cuts expected in August and November.
5. Bank of Japan: Bets on an early rate hike by the BoJ have diminished; swap rates indicate only a 9.5% chance of a 25-basis-point hike in May.
