TechFlow news, April 1: QCP released a recent market analysis stating that Bitcoin, Ethereum, and the S&P 500 have just recorded their worst quarterly performance in three years. The crypto market cap erased over $160 billion since Friday. Friday's pullback stemmed from quarter-end options expiry, aggressive selling by traders, and perpetual contract funding rates turning negative. Meanwhile, core inflation data came in higher than expected, while consumer spending remains sluggish.
Markets are focused on Trump's reciprocal tariff policy announcement on April 2, dubbed "Liberation Day." Against the backdrop of consumer confidence plunging to a 12-year low and equities suffering a weekly decline of 4-5%, aggressive tariffs could intensify recession concerns. However, if the policy turns out weaker than expected, it might offer some relief to markets.
On volatility, VIX remains elevated at 22, while cryptocurrency volatility is declining. Trading desks indicate bullish sentiment dominated ahead of Asia's open, with investors buying upside options and selling downside risk.
Although April has historically been a strong month for cryptocurrencies, the outlook remains cautious, with markets likely to consolidate sideways to digest macro risks. Key events this week include ISM data, the nonfarm payrolls report, and Powell's speech.
