TechFlow news — On March 5, according to Jinshi News, options traders expect the S&P 500 index to fluctuate by 1.3% this Friday, marking the largest volatility on a non-farm payrolls release day since the regional banking crisis in March 2023. Citi Group data shows that Wednesday's expected two-way move for the S&P 500 was 1.4%, the highest implied volatility since the day after the U.S. presidential election on November 6, 2023.
Increased market volatility is primarily driven by two factors: uncertainty surrounding the Trump administration's tariff policies and the upcoming non-farm payrolls report. Trump recently warned of potential further economic turbulence and defended his plans for significantly raising tariffs, but U.S. Commerce Secretary Lutnick indicated that Trump is considering some tariff relief measures, slightly calming market sentiment.
The Chicago Board Options Exchange Volatility Index (VIX) has reached its highest level since December last year, breaking above the 20-point threshold. Economists forecast that U.S. employment will rise by 160,000 in February, with the unemployment rate holding steady at 4% and average hourly earnings increasing 4.1% year-on-year. UBS Group equity derivatives strategist Grinkov said, "Macro factors are becoming more important. This is an environment of higher volatility."
