TechFlow news, on March 4, according to Jinshi News, analyst Adam Button said the current trade environment is tough, and so is formulating interest rate policy. So far, there have been few signs of a more dovish Fed, but St. Louis Fed President Musalem yesterday emphasized some downside risks facing the economy, opening the door for the Fed to consider this path. Beyond that, every Fed official has issued similar "wait-and-see" statements, stressing they want to see 2% inflation before cutting rates. The market isn't waiting for stronger signals, having increased its pricing of Fed easing from 40 basis points just weeks ago to 80 basis points for this year. The upcoming March meeting still shows very low probability of a rate cut, but the odds for a cut at the May meeting now exceed 50%. At the farther end of the yield curve, the terminal rate has declined by approximately 50 basis points.
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