TechFlow reports that on December 30, QCP Capital's latest analysis indicated volatility has decreased by 2-3 percentage points from Friday's record expiration levels, following the typical post-options-expiration quarter-end volatility sell-off. Although BTC is oscillating near the bottom of its one-month range with stable monthly returns, Q4 performance was strong: BTC rose 48% and ETH gained 30%. Saylor recently updated his BTC purchase tracker again, potentially signaling an upcoming new round of buying that could further support prices.
Despite the possibility of additional purchases, QCP remains cautious about market performance during the New Year period, especially in a liquidity-rich environment. January's average return (+3.3%) is similar to December's (+4.8%), and BTC spot prices are expected to remain within this range until a recovery begins in February. Options liquidity also reflects a similar sentiment, with front-end volatility gradually declining. The March risk reversal is now primarily skewed toward call options, partly due to last Friday's significant purchase of 120,000 to 130,000 March call options.
