TechFlow news — On December 24, according to Barron's, as Bitcoin pulled back to $94,000 on Christmas Eve, Yuya Hasegawa, analyst at Japanese cryptocurrency exchange bitbank, outlined three key factors that will shape the crypto market in 2025.
First, the direction of cryptocurrency monetary policy under the Trump administration will dominate market sentiment. The proposed strategic Bitcoin reserve plan and progress in appointing pro-crypto officials are expected to directly impact price movements of major cryptocurrencies including Bitcoin, XRP, and Dogecoin.
Second, Federal Reserve monetary policy will continue influencing the crypto market. Hasegawa noted that loose monetary policy has historically benefited Bitcoin prices, while tighter policy exerts negative pressure. Although the Fed has cumulatively cut rates by 100 basis points this year, Trump’s plan to impose 10%-20% tariffs on all imported goods—with tariffs on Chinese goods potentially reaching 60%—could intensify inflationary pressures, forcing the Fed to maintain higher interest rates.
Third, the U.S. government debt issue could become a new market focal point. Hasegawa emphasized that a high-interest-rate environment would加重 the burden of government debt. If concerns over debt sustainability trigger market anxiety, and if the U.S. strategic Bitcoin reserve plan is successfully implemented, Bitcoin’s status as "digital gold" and its safe-haven attributes would attract greater attention, potentially driving further valuation gains.
