TechFlow news, November 7 — According to Jinshi Data, following Donald Trump's victory in the U.S. presidential election, markets are closely watching its potential impact on tonight's Federal Reserve interest rate decision. Analysts from several financial institutions have shared their views:
1. Jefferies: Powell may not explicitly address the issue of increased spending following Trump's win, but he internally recognizes its stimulative effect on the economy.
2. Bank of America: The Fed might currently ignore the impact of tariffs on inflation, treating it as a short-term price fluctuation, while focusing instead on negative growth implications.
3. Standard Chartered: Before the Fed fully absorbs the election's implications, it won't want to surprise markets, increasing the likelihood of holding steady.
4. Pantheon Macroeconomics: Although the Fed will still cut rates today, Trump’s impending return to the White House could constrain future rate cuts.
5. JPMorgan Chase: With the election settled before the Fed meeting, a rate cut remains justified, though careful wording in forward guidance will be necessary.
6. DBS Bank: The real federal funds rate has risen to 2.6%, meaning the Fed has room to cut rates this week regardless of the U.S. election outcome.
7. Nordea: The inflationary impact of Trump’s policies will take time to materialize, and the Fed will need more time before it abandons its dovish bias.
8. SEB: The Fed won’t incorporate Trump’s victory into its near-term decisions until there is clarity on the new administration’s policies and their effects.
9. Amerivet Securities: Trump’s win doesn’t alter the outlook for a 25-basis-point rate cut tonight, but the central bank must remain vigilant going forward.
10. Natixis: Trump’s tax policies could lead to rising inflationary pressures and widening fiscal deficits, potentially weakening the Fed’s dovish stance.
