TechFlow news, October 5 — According to CoinDesk, investment research firm BCA Research released a report stating that despite China launching its largest stimulus package since 2008, it may fail to generate a significant "credit impulse" comparable to that of 2015. As a result, the upward trend in risk assets—including Bitcoin—may prove difficult to sustain.
BCA Research explained that the "credit impulse" refers to new credit as a percentage of GDP and has served as a leading indicator of global economic growth and risk appetite since the 2008 financial crisis. In 2015, China’s credit impulse peaked at 15.5 trillion yuan, approximately 15% of GDP. At that time, the CSI 300 Index more than doubled within six months, while Bitcoin began rebounding from around $100 and climbed to an all-time high of $20,000 during the subsequent two-year bull market.
However, the current situation differs significantly from 2015. BCA Research noted that China's economy has since doubled in size compared to 2015, meaning this round of credit impulse would need to reach approximately 27 trillion yuan to achieve a similar impact. Yet, the recent peak in credit impulse has been less than 5 trillion yuan—far below the required level.
