TechFlow news — "Fed whisperer" Nick Timiraos said the nonfarm payrolls report could provide a clear signal on the size of the Fed's first rate cut, whether 25 or 50 basis points, with market pricing immediately rising to 90% for whichever scenario emerges.
However, this month's nonfarm payrolls report did not resolve the question well. Currently, market pricing for a 25-basis-point versus a 50-basis-point cut is essentially "fifty-fifty." The overall payroll data wasn't weak enough to shift the base expectation to a 50-basis-point cut, but given the revised figures, it also isn't strong enough to convincingly eliminate speculation about a larger cut.
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