TechFlow News, Cycle Capital Research analysis indicates that as of July 12, approximately 138,000 BTC remain in the Mt. Gox account addresses, suggesting that the actual selling pressure from Mt. Gox has not yet entered the market. The price drop on July 5 represented a partial realization of market expectations regarding potential Mt. Gox sell-offs. A large-scale distribution of BTC held by Mt. Gox to several exchange addresses could trigger significant panic-driven selling, potentially leading to a sharp price crash. In contrast, individual creditor sales—being more fragmented and harder to track—may not necessarily cause notable price declines.
The Mt. Gox compensation litigation, ongoing since 2014, still has around 140,000 BTC left to be distributed. Under the compensation plan, creditors can choose between an early lump-sum payout or delayed, extended disbursements. On July 5, 2024, the Mt. Gox address moved 47,000 tokens, including 1,545 BTC transferred to Bitbank, marking the beginning of payouts. If all compensation is completed within one month, the resulting market selling pressure would resemble that caused by the German government’s Bitcoin sales, possibly triggering a price decline. However, if distributions extend over two to three months, the market may absorb the selling through consolidation and volatility.
Additionally, during the period of the German government’s token sales, ETF net inflows totaled $600 million, averaging $43 million per day, with major buying activity occurring after July 5, accumulating over $800 million in total demand. Meanwhile, the German government sold 40,000 tokens into the market, worth approximately $2.4 billion. Therefore, current BTC ETF demand appears insufficient to fully absorb such large-scale selling pressure.
