TechFlow News, Adam, macro researcher at Greeks.live, posted on X platform stating that this week is a major macro week, with the most critical data being Friday's U.S. unemployment rate and non-farm payroll figures. The SEC is highly likely to respond to ETH ETF applications this week; while direct approval remains unlikely, positive news is probable. Following the recent quarterly settlement, IVs across major tenors are low, presenting a good opportunity for positioning.
Key events this week:
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7/1 Monday: U.S. June ISM Manufacturing PMI;
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7/2 Tuesday: Federal Reserve Chair Powell, ECB President Lagarde, and Central Bank of Brazil Governor Neto speak at the ECB Central Banking Forum. RBA releases minutes of its June monetary policy meeting;
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7/3 Wednesday: U.S. June ADP employment change, weekly initial jobless claims;
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7/4 Thursday: Fed releases minutes of its monetary policy meeting, UK general election, ECB releases June monetary policy meeting minutes, SEC may approve spot Ethereum ETF as early as today;
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7/5 Friday: U.S. June unemployment rate, U.S. June non-farm payrolls;
The crypto market has endured a difficult month. Since entering a correction phase in mid-March, BTC and ETH have mostly been trading in a downward oscillation, reflecting a generally weak sentiment in the crypto market. Currently, overall IV levels are low. As margin capital released from the quarterly big settlement gradually returns to the market, choosing timing with lower IV presents an opportunity to establish long call positions. In the crypto interest rate market, Bitfinex's funding market remains quiet, though occasionally attractive rate orders appear—traders should actively take such favorable rates when available.
