TechFlow news — Cathie Wood's Ark Invest fund has released its July Bitcoin monthly report, highlighting the following points:
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Bitcoin's volatility has dropped to its lowest level in six years, which could signal a significant price move—either up or down.
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Long-term holders now own a record high percentage of Bitcoin, accounting for 74.88% of circulating supply. Short-term holders are approaching breakeven levels.
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Despite a 4.1% decline in July, bringing the price down to $29,230, Bitcoin found technical support above the $26,623 level—the 200-week moving average—around $29,205.
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Bitcoin’s cost basis has slightly declined, but pricing remains close to fair value. While supported at the short-term holder cost basis and the 200-week moving average, Bitcoin may face resistance at the activity-adjusted realized price. The past 90 days of Bitcoin volatility show rare values not seen since 2017, suggesting an expansion likely over the coming weeks to months.
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In addition, ongoing pressure from the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) and the Department of Justice (DOJ) has caused Binance’s BNB token to consolidate below a key support level. A breakout above $210 could indicate potential trouble ahead for this cryptocurrency.
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The impact of monetary policy typically lags by 12 to 18 months, suggesting the full effect of the Federal Reserve’s 22 rate hikes has yet to materialize. The Zillow Rent Index leads Owner’s Equivalent Rent (OER) by about nine months, indicating Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation could drop significantly below 2% by year-end.
