TechFlow news, according to Jinshi Data, the Federal Reserve resumed rate hikes in July, raising the benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to a range of 5.25%-5.50%, reaching the highest level since 2001, in line with market expectations.
According to the FOMC statement from the Federal Reserve, the Fed will continue assessing additional information and considers further tightening of monetary policy to curb inflation.
Chair Powell stated that when determining when to cut rates, both inflation levels and the pace of decline must be considered. He personally believes that rate cuts are unlikely this year, and whether or not they occur will depend on the Fed's confidence that inflation has returned sustainably toward its target. Later, Powell added that if the Fed sees reliable easing in inflation, it would not need to implement restrictive measures. If inflation is seen to decline steadily, the Fed could lower rates to neutral levels, and then at some point below neutral. He expects inflation may not return to 2% until around 2025, but rate hikes could stop before inflation reaches 2%.
In addition, according to CME's "Fed Watch" data, after the release of the July rate decision, markets anticipate a 79.1% probability that the Fed will keep rates unchanged at 5.25%-5.50% in September, a 20.3% probability of a 25-basis-point hike to 5.50%-5.75%, and a 0.6% probability of a 50-basis-point hike to 5.75%-6.00%.
