TechFlow news — Rui, Investment Manager at HashKey Capital, posted on Twitter expressing initial skepticism toward the BlackRock ETF news. However, he noted that last week's surprisingly positive market reaction made the situation intriguing. After reviewing some supporting indicators, he concluded it's highly likely this ETF will be approved. Now the interesting questions are when it will be approved and how much buying volume will follow.
First, after an ETF submission is filed, a decision is typically expected within one to two months, though usually no later than six weeks. As for buy-side volume, while hard to estimate precisely, historical data from futures-based ETFs suggests there won't be $10 billion in immediate inflows. A more realistic short-term ceiling would be around $1 billion. Still, the news has significantly boosted confidence in the crypto market. Every step closer to mainstream finance, starting with CME futures, counts as a "victory."
In this environment of deteriorating liquidity, the practice of market makers pumping prices remains widespread. The sharp rallies seen in tokens like WAVE, UNI, and AAVE are essentially probing maneuvers. If the ETF approval is truly "priced in," very few assets beyond BTC stand to benefit directly.
At present, the primary market may be going through its darkest phase—market activity at $30K is even quieter than at $15K. Yet it's precisely during such periods that wealth creation from new projects may quietly emerge. With established projects running out of catalysts and capital starved for opportunities, new projects naturally begin to surface.
