TechFlow news, July 16, according to NYDIG research report (Author: Greg Cipolaro, July 10, 2026), Bitcoin fell 13.4% in Q2 2026, with the year-to-date decline expanding to 32.9%, while during the same period the Nasdaq 100 Index rose 27.7% and tech stocks surged 43.5%, indicating that this decline was not due to macro risk aversion, but rather Bitcoin-specific supply pressure.
The core pressure stems from Strategy (MSTR) launching the "Digital Credit Capital Framework," authorizing the sale of approximately $1.25 billion worth of Bitcoin to cover capital structure obligations, marking the largest historical marginal buyer shifting from continuous accumulation to active monetization, and the DAT complex overall turning from a demand engine to a supply risk.
In terms of ETFs, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs saw net outflows of $4.9 billion in Q2, but the Morgan Stanley Bitcoin Trust attracted $364.8 million in inflows against the trend, showing distribution channels remain competitive. In the derivatives market, against the backdrop of weak spot demand and continuous outflows from ETFs and stablecoins, positive funding rates combined with rising open interest indicate leveraged longs are rebuilding positions, posing a risk of forced liquidation triggering a new round of decline.
Bitcoin has currently fallen 54.3% cumulatively from the all-time high of $126,000 set on October 6, 2025. If referencing the 2018 and 2022 cycles (gradually narrowing ~70% decline, ~370 days duration), the cycle low may appear in early October in the $38,000 to $39,000 range. The CLARITY Act Senate consideration window from July 13 to August 7 is the last realistic opportunity this year; ethical controversies triggered by Trump's over $1.4 billion crypto income and the banking industry's continued opposition to stablecoin yield provisions remain the main obstacles to the bill's passage.
