TechFlow reports, July 6, according to Chaoxiang Research, Morgan Stanley's latest CPO report shows that market expectations for CPO seriously diverge from actual shipments, with only 23k units expected in 2026, while previous market expectations were generally above 200k. The core bottleneck lies in TSMC's PIC capacity ramp-up (10→25kwpm) and the 20-50% yield dilemma.
This expectation gap will directly impact core targets such as NVIDIA, Broadcom, and TSMC. The report also downgraded TSMC's CoWoS capacity forecast (2027: 45→40kwpm), and AllRing's 53% growth expectation faces significant risks.
Optical companies such as Lumentum and Coherent are expected to contribute less than 1% related to CPO in 2026-2027. In terms of A-shares, Tfc Optical Communication, SMIC, and Eoptolink are basically absent in core links of the CPO supply chain and have limited relevance to the concepts hyped by the market. Morgan Stanley advises investors to remain cautious before the potential "disappointing quarterly report" in Q2 2027.
