TechFlow news, July 3, QCP released a latest report stating that Bitcoin once fell below the $58,000 support level, hitting a low near $57,700, then rebounded after US non-farm payroll data came in lower than expected and returned above $60,000. Ethereum rebounded to $1,700 during the same period, rising nearly 10% from the mid-week low. In terms of the options market, front-end implied volatility retreated from previous highs, the term structure restored a positive spread, market panic eased somewhat, but short-term downside protection demand still exists.
On the macro level, although non-farm data fell short of expectations, wage growth, declining unemployment, and resilient consumption leave the Fed with room to maintain a somewhat hawkish stance. The market has pushed back rate hike expectations from September to December, but cross-asset performance such as US Treasuries and stocks does not yet support a clear judgment of a policy shift. In terms of capital flows, after Bitcoin spot ETFs saw net outflows for 6 consecutive trading days, they recorded a net inflow of $224 million on Thursday, indicating that demand for buying on dips is beginning to recover. Against the backdrop of thin liquidity before the US holiday and long weekend, QCP expects short-term volatility to maintain a two-way fluctuation trend.
