TechFlow News, July 1, according to Jin10 Data, the World Gold Council released today the "Mid-Year Outlook for the Global Gold Market 2026". Looking ahead to the second half of the year, the gold valuation framework shows that gold will continue to serve as a barometer for the global macroeconomy, with three main possible scenarios. From current price levels, gold prices are basically in line with market consensus: the market expects the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates at least once in 2026, most likely in October; the Bank of England, Bank of Japan, and European Central Bank will all tighten policy; the U.S. Q2 inflation rate is expected to peak, approaching 3.9%.
If the above environment does not change significantly, gold prices may trade around $4,100/ounce within the year, with a fluctuation range of approximately ±5%. If geopolitical or economic situations deteriorate, or interest rate expectations shift, gold is expected to regain its upward trend; however, only if signals of global economic slowdown are strong enough could it drive gold prices to break upward.
On the downside, a stronger U.S. dollar, interest rate hikes exceeding expectations, and a rebound in market risk appetite are the main resistances facing gold prices; if gold prices remain below $4,000/ounce, it may trigger further selling. However, based on historical performance, if gold prices fall more than 10% from current levels, it may trigger "buy the dip" demand from long-term investors in multiple regions.
