TechFlow reports, on June 29, QCP's latest report indicated that the situation remains unstable following the signing of the memorandum of understanding between the US and Iran. Military friction occurred between the two sides again over the weekend, with mutual accusations of violating the 60-day ceasefire agreement, casting a shadow over the prospects for subsequent negotiations this week. Although crude oil prices remain roughly at the low level of $70 per barrel, indicating that the market still holds cautious expectations for easing tensions, oil prices still face upside risks if supply recovery falls short of expectations.
Regarding the crypto market, Bitcoin and Ethereum are approaching key support levels. Increased market demand for downside protection has driven implied volatility higher, particularly with significant demand for Bitcoin put options expiring in July at $55,000 to $58,000. At the same time, outflows from Bitcoin spot ETFs, concerns related to MicroStrategy, and pressure on US stocks continue to suppress market sentiment. However, there is also buying interest in Bitcoin call options at $64,000 expiring in mid-July, indicating that some traders are beginning to position for a potential rebound.
On the macro level, in early July, the market will focus on Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh's speech at the European Central Bank Forum, as well as the ISM Manufacturing PMI and US non-farm payroll data. Against the backdrop of weak liquidity before the holiday and continued uncertainty in the geopolitical situation, the market may maintain a state of high volatility in the short term.
