TechFlow News: On May 26, Bybit released its latest options weekly report, stating that BTC rebounded last week after finding support near the dense $74,000 zone and is now consolidating around $77,000. A key macro turning point: Nomura withdrew its rate-cut expectations, while the CME FedWatch tool shows the probability of a rate hike rising to 60%, completely breaking the prior logic chain of “ceasefire → rate cuts → BTC rally.” Barclays, Goldman Sachs, ING, and JPMorgan all confirmed that the rise in long-end yields is driven by three structural factors—debt expansion, AI-related investment, and an increase in the neutral interest rate—rather than geopolitical developments. Bullish catalysts continue to accumulate (e.g., SpaceX’s 18,712-BTC holdings, the ARMA reserve proposal, and the CLARITY Act), yet price action remains unresponsive. The DVOL index has fallen to ~35%, a historical extreme; no strategy is currently recommended. Traders should wait for DVOL to rise above 45% before entering.
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