TechFlow News: On May 15, Chloe (@ChloeTalk1), a columnist for HTX DeepThink and researcher at HTX Research, analyzed that on May 14, Kevin Warsh was formally confirmed as Chair of the Federal Reserve by an extremely narrow margin in the Senate—marking the most contentious leadership transition at the Fed in decades. Global risk assets—especially the crypto market—are poised to enter a new phase characterized by “high volatility + high uncertainty.”
The current market’s biggest contradiction lies in the head-on clash between “political pressure for rate cuts” and “real-world inflationary pressures.” Trump continues to demand swift rate cuts to stabilize the financial environment ahead of the midterm elections; however, the latest U.S. PPI rose 6% year-on-year, while core PPI climbed to 5.2%—both significantly exceeding market expectations—indicating that energy-price surges triggered by the Iran war have begun spreading across broader goods and services sectors.
Warsh’s stance is more nuanced than market expectations. Although viewed by the Trump camp as someone “more inclined toward rate cuts,” his long-standing intellectual framework is fundamentally hawkish: he has repeatedly criticized the Fed for over-intervening in markets and has long opposed unlimited quantitative easing (QE). His true policy direction is not traditional large-scale monetary easing, but rather a “low-interest-rate environment without QE”: shrinking the balance sheet, reducing market intervention, and simultaneously curbing inflation through AI-driven productivity gains and regulatory relaxation. This implies that the future U.S. dollar liquidity environment will likely differ sharply from the era of unlimited QE (2020–2021); markets should not anticipate broad-based, bubble-like asset price surges, but rather a phase of structurally allocated liquidity.
The most critical near-term observation window is the FOMC meeting on June 16–17—the first interest-rate decision chaired by Warsh. If the meeting signals that “inflation control remains the top priority,” risk assets may face a short-term correction; if Warsh instead begins emphasizing growth risks and slowing employment, markets may reprice rate-cut expectations. For the crypto market, the tone of this meeting will directly determine liquidity expectations and pricing direction for the next phase.
Note: This article does not constitute investment advice nor any offer, solicitation, or recommendation regarding any investment product.
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