TechFlow reports that on May 3, Julio Moreno, Head of Research at CryptoQuant, wrote in a report: “Perpetual futures contract demand was the sole driver behind Bitcoin’s April price increase, while spot apparent demand continued to contract—a structure historically associated with bear markets and typically unsustainable for prolonged upward momentum.”
Moreno stated that this divergence—rising futures demand alongside contracting spot demand—is one of the clearest on-chain signals indicating that the current rally is more speculative than structurally driven. He noted that this implies price gains are primarily leveraged-driven rather than fueled by new capital inflows into Bitcoin.
Moreno added: “Historically, such structures lack a solid foundation to sustain continuous price appreciation; once futures positions begin unwinding, price corrections typically follow.”
CryptoQuant notes that the current perpetual-futures-driven demand structure resembles conditions observed during the early phase of the 2022 bear market. While this does not guarantee an identical outcome this time, the current structure indeed carries “significant downside risk.”
