TechFlow News, April 4: Matthew Sigel, Head of Research at VanEck, posted an analysis on X stating that protective demand in the current Bitcoin derivatives market has risen to the 99th percentile—a historically extreme level—typically viewed as a “contrarian long signal” amid heightened risk-aversion sentiment, suggesting the current market environment is suitable for establishing long positions.
Sigel also manages the VanEck Digital Transformation ETF (NODE), which has gained 27% since inception, while Bitcoin declined 33% over the same period. This outperformance reflects lower volatility achieved through diversified allocation and a focus on profitable sectors. However, Sigel cautioned that massive capital expenditures by companies in artificial intelligence (AI) could exert meaningful downward pressure on markets if they fail to generate commensurate returns—particularly given the concentration of market weight in S&P 500 constituents.
Note: A percentile is a statistical measure of relative standing; the 99th percentile represents an exceptionally extreme value, whereas the 50th percentile denotes the median.
