TechFlow News: On April 4, China International Capital Corporation (CICC) stated in its research report that the U.S.-Iran conflict triggered a sharp rise in oil prices, causing inflationary (“inflation”) risks to take precedence. As a result, market expectations for the Federal Reserve’s rate-cutting path have shifted, exerting selling pressure on gold ETFs—which had significantly increased holdings last year—while liquidity shocks in the futures and options markets further fueled short-term corrections. Currently, the Middle East’s geopolitical situation may be entering a critical window, with oil prices facing an inflection point—either upward or downward. The gold market’s pricing focus is likely to shift toward assessing how supply shocks impact “stagflation,” and the already partially priced-in rate-hike expectations may require adjustment. Looking ahead, CICC believes that gold investment demand and prices could both see upward correction potential—whether due to oil price pullbacks following de-escalation of geopolitical tensions, a return of monetary policy to a dovish stance, or intensified supply shocks exacerbating recessionary pressures and thereby highlighting gold’s safe-haven value. (Jinshi)
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