TechFlow News reports that, according to Cointelegraph, as the U.S.-Israel war against Iran enters its fourth week on March 21, Bitcoin has declined nearly 5% over the week, trading at approximately $70,636. The S&P 500, Dow Jones Industrial Average, Nasdaq Composite, and gold all weakened concurrently, while crude oil prices have surged 53% since the outbreak of hostilities on February 28—rising 7.3% this week alone.
On the capital outflow front, Kobeissi Letter data shows that over the past three months, the S&P 500 ETF (SPY) and Nasdaq-100 ETF (QQQ) collectively experienced outflows totaling $64 billion—the largest such outflow on record—reversing last November’s $50 billion net inflow and representing 5% of total assets under management. Bitcoin spot ETFs recorded $253 million in outflows over the past two days; although monthly inflows remain positive ($1.48 billion), cumulative outflows from November through February totaled $6.3 billion, underscoring the market’s fragile recovery foundation.
Glassnode data indicates that net realized profit briefly accelerated to roughly $17 million per hour before losing momentum, after which Bitcoin promptly fell back below $70,000. Glassnode notes that geopolitical uncertainty is compressing demand depth, limiting the market’s capacity to absorb selling pressure.
Several analysts have compared this move to Bitcoin’s performance during the 2022 Russia-Ukraine war: Bitcoin initially dropped, then rebounded 24%, only to subsequently decline a cumulative 64% by November of that year. Crypto analyst Finish contends that Bitcoin is unlikely to stage a meaningful rebound until the Iran conflict subsides, and sets a near-term price floor target around $55,000.
