TechFlow News, March 10: According to a Bitfinex analysis report, Bitcoin has recently demonstrated unexpected resilience. The derivatives market is currently undergoing a “deleveraging wave,” with the speculative bubble having nearly fully dissipated. The Leverage Reset Index (LRI) has fallen to a multi-year low of 0.32, indicating that price discovery is now driven primarily by spot demand rather than derivatives leverage. Additionally, retail investors holding fewer than 10 BTC have been net sellers over the past 30 days, while whales holding more than 1,000 BTC have increased their holdings by approximately 8% since the October 2023 peak. Bitcoin at-the-money (ATM) implied volatility stands at around 47%, significantly below the 100% level observed during the 2022 bear market.
Short-dated option premiums are slightly higher than long-dated ones, reflecting market pricing-in of near-term uncertainty, while the longer-term outlook remains relatively constructive. Overall, the Bitcoin market is transitioning from a leveraged-driven correction to a macro-liquidity-driven, high-conviction mean-reversion phase. Supported by spot demand and institutional accumulation, prices may stabilize and stage a sustained rebound.
